Bitcoin is ending Christmas Day in a familiar spot: just under the psychologically important $90,000 level, with trading conditions thinned out by the holiday and investors watching Friday’s massive options expiry for the next decisive move.

At the time of writing on Thursday, December 25, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $88,039, after an intraday range of roughly $87,218 to $88,452.

What matters most for Bitcoin price on Dec 25

Market coverage and analyst notes published on 25.12.2025 converge on a few immediate drivers:

• BTC is range-bound below $90,000, with repeated rejections near that “round number” level and buyers showing up on dips. ^[1]
• U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have been printing net outflows, a headwind for the “institutional bid” narrative that powered parts of 2024–2025. ^[2]
• A record-sized Bitcoin options expiry lands Friday (Dec 26), and multiple analysts argue it has effectively “pinned” price action into a tighter band—until it doesn’t. ^[3]
• Sentiment is still fragile: several gauges remain in “fear” territory, despite the industry’s progress on access, products, and policy. ^[4]

Bitcoin price today: where BTC is trading on Christmas Day

Bitcoin is trading like a market caught between two storylines:

1. Longer-term optimism tied to institutional access (ETFs, prime brokerage, derivatives) and the post-halving supply narrative; and
2. Short-term caution tied to reduced market depth, year-end de-risking, and persistent ETF redemptions.

Right now, the price action is doing what it often does late in the year: consolidating in a tight band that can break suddenly when liquidity is thin. Bloomberg described Bitcoin on Christmas Eve as pinned in roughly a $85,000–$90,000 range, showing “little sign of life” even as traditional markets leaned into seasonal optimism. ^[5]

Why Bitcoin is stuck under $90,000: thin liquidity + de-risking

Two forces dominate the tape into year-end:

1) Holiday liquidity is amplifying small flows

When spot volumes and order-book depth shrink, it takes less capital to move price—and it also becomes harder for breakouts to sustain. That dynamic has shown up repeatedly this week as BTC probes $90,000 and slips back.

On Wednesday (Dec 24), Investing.com noted Bitcoin ticked lower toward $87,000 after another failed attempt to reclaim $90,000, citing thin year-end conditions and ETF outflows. ^[6]

2) Investors are “cleaning up the book” into year-end

Whether it’s tax-driven positioning, profit-taking after a volatile year, or simply reducing leverage before the calendar turns, the market is acting like it wants clarity before taking the next big bet.

That matters because 2025 has already demonstrated how quickly Bitcoin can switch regimes. Reuters has documented the year’s sharp swings—from the record highs above $125,000–$126,000 in early October to a later pullback toward the mid-$80,000s. ^[7]

ETF flows: the institutional demand “engine” is sputtering into year-end

One of the most-cited catalysts behind Bitcoin’s rise in the past two years has been spot Bitcoin ETFs—a regulated on-ramp that brought new pools of capital into BTC exposure.

But today’s (Dec 25) analyst write-ups emphasize that this pipeline is currently working in reverse:

• FXStreet reported that U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an outflow of about $175.29 million on Wednesday, marking a fifth consecutive day of withdrawals (via SoSoValue data). ^[8]
• Investing.com’s Dec 25 analysis also highlighted that the market is dealing with a shift from the big “institutional rails” narrative to a more cautious phase as ETF flows soften. ^[9]

A separate Dec 25 Investing.com piece (summarizing a ValueWalk report) framed the mid-December picture more broadly: Dec. 15–19 saw roughly $1.13 billion in net outflows across U.S.-listed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, with some major funds showing the largest withdrawals. ^[10]

Why this matters for Bitcoin price: ETF flows don’t just reflect sentiment; they can influence the “marginal buyer” at key technical levels. When inflows are strong, dips can be absorbed more easily. When outflows dominate, rallies can meet supply faster—especially near psychologically important levels like $90,000.

The main catalyst on the calendar: Friday’s record Bitcoin options expiry

If there’s one event nearly every Dec 25 analysis keeps coming back to, it’s the Dec 26 (Friday) options expiry.

What we know from primary sources

Singapore-based trading firm QCP said in its Dec 23 market note that:

• Roughly 300,000 BTC option contracts (about $23.7B) are set to expire, alongside 446,000 IBIT option contracts. ^[11]
• This “Boxing Day” expiry represents more than 50% of Deribit’s total open interest, with large strike concentrations at $100,000 and $85,000, and max pain clustered around $95,000. ^[12]
• QCP also noted BTC has historically seen 5–7% swings during the Christmas period, often linked to year-end options expiries rather than fresh fundamental catalysts. ^[13]

FXStreet echoed that framing on Dec 25, pointing to $23.47B in BTC option contracts expiring Friday, with a low put/call ratio cited as evidence that calls outweigh puts, and reiterating the $95,000 “max pain” region. ^[14]

Why options expiry can “pin” Bitcoin—and then unleash it

When a very large options expiry approaches, dealers and large traders often hedge exposure in ways that can keep spot price oscillating within a defined band. If price breaks out of that band after expiry, the same hedging dynamics can work in the opposite direction—accelerating a move.

TradingView coverage (via NewsBTC) summarized the setup bluntly: more than $23B worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire, and with holiday liquidity low, unwinding hedges can trigger sharper moves than usual. ^[15]

Key Bitcoin levels traders are watching right now

Today’s analyst notes cluster around a consistent set of levels:

Resistance: $90,000 first, then mid-$90Ks

• FXStreet: if BTC closes above $90,000, analysts point to a move toward the next resistance zone (low-to-mid $94Ks in their framing). ^[16]
• Economic Times (Dec 24, but heavily cited in today’s broader coverage): one analyst quoted resistance near $89,000, while another pointed to resistance in the $90,000–$95,000 zone. ^[17]

Support: mid-$80Ks are the line in the sand

• Investing.com’s Dec 25 technical analysis described buyers defending the mid-$86,000s area repeatedly, while warning that a downside break could open a move toward the low-$80,000s. ^[18]
• FXStreet highlighted a nearby support level in the mid-$85,000s if the correction extends. ^[19]

If Bitcoin breaks either side of this range after the options expiry, many short-term strategies will flip from “mean reversion” to “trend follow,” which is why this zone matters so much to near-term price direction.

The $70,000–$80,000 “support gap” that keeps showing up in today’s analysis

One of the more interesting Dec 25 narratives isn’t about where Bitcoin is today—but where it could go if $85,000 fails.

A widely circulated analysis (sourced to CME futures history and Glassnode-style supply distribution work) argues that:

• The $70,000–$80,000 zone has relatively weak historical consolidation, with only 28 trading days spent there in the past five years of CME Bitcoin futures data, making it a thinner “support shelf.” ^[20]
• Even the $80,000–$90,000 range—where BTC sits now—has comparatively limited historical consolidation (cited as 49 trading days in that analysis). ^[21]

Translation for non-technical readers: markets often find more stable footing in zones where lots of trading previously occurred (more buyers, more “memory”). If the historical footprint is thin, price can travel faster through that area—until it finds a deeper pool of demand.

This doesn’t mean BTC is “destined” to drop to $70,000. It means traders are mapping what the order flow might look like if the current support band breaks.

Sentiment check: “fear” persists, even after big structural wins

Several Dec 25 analyses highlight a disconnect: crypto has won many of the structural battles (products, access, policy attention), but prices have not responded the way bulls expected into year-end.

CryptoSlate’s Dec 25 analysis described sentiment gauges sitting deep in “fear” ranges for extended stretches, and argued that the market is struggling because rallies keep fading despite favorable long-term infrastructure. ^[22]

Meanwhile, Investing.com’s Dec 25 technical note referenced a Crypto Fear & Greed Index near 27, consistent with a risk-off posture. ^[23]

For SEO readers tracking “Bitcoin price sentiment,” this is the key point: Bitcoin isn’t just trading levels—it’s trading confidence. And confidence is currently fragile.

Bitcoin price forecasts: where analysts think BTC goes next

Forecasting Bitcoin is notoriously difficult, but several mainstream and institutional forecasts are driving the conversation into 2026.

Citi’s 2026 outlook: $143,000 base case, wide bull/bear range

MarketWatch reported (and multiple outlets summarized) that Citi’s base case targets $143,000 in 2026, with a bull case above $189,000 and a bear case around $78,500—a range that underscores just how uncertain the macro and adoption path remains. ^[24]

Finance Magnates’ write-up added color around the same Citi framework, including the idea that Citi highlighted $70,000 as an important long-term support floor in its analysis. ^[25]

Standard Chartered and other big calls: expectations have been revised lower

Reuters previously noted that Standard Chartered had forecast $200,000 by the end of 2025 (a call that looks far off with BTC still in the high-$80Ks), while other bullish projections have been tempered amid the year’s volatility. ^[26]

Barron’s (Dec 19) also reported that some major 2026 forecasts have softened, including Citi revising down from an earlier target and Standard Chartered cutting its 2026 target in half (per Barron’s summary). ^[27]

Options market odds: traders have been hedging a sub-$90k year-end

One of the most concrete “forecast-like” signals comes from derivatives pricing. Reuters reported in November that the probability of Bitcoin ending 2025 below $90,000 rose to 50% (via Derive.xyz), while the market assigned about a 30% chance of finishing above $100,000. ^[28]

Those odds may change quickly after Friday’s expiry, but they help explain why $90,000 has felt like a ceiling into the final week of the year.

What could move Bitcoin next: the near-term checklist

If you’re following “Bitcoin price” headlines into the weekend, most of the actionable monitoring list is straightforward:

1. ETF flow prints (do outflows slow, stop, or reverse?) ^[29]
2. Post-expiry volatility and positioning (does BTC break the $85k–$90k band after Dec 26?) ^[30]
3. Macro risk appetite (if markets shift “risk-off,” BTC has shown it can correlate with broader risk assets during stress) ^[31]
4. Institutional adoption headlines (Wall Street continues to explore crypto trading and infrastructure expansion, which affects medium-term narratives even if it doesn’t move price day-to-day) ^[32]

Bottom line for Dec 25: Bitcoin is coiled, not calm

Bitcoin is not doing much today—and that’s exactly why so many analysts are paying attention.

With BTC still below $90,000, ETF outflows weighing on the institutional flow story, and a record options expiry set for Friday, the market is effectively in a holding pattern that can break sharply once hedges roll off and liquidity returns. ^[33]

As always with Bitcoin, forecasts are not guarantees. But if today’s (Dec 25) coverage gets one thing right, it’s this: the next “boring” day may be the one that ends the range. ^[34]

References

1. www.investing.com, 2. www.fxstreet.com, 3. www.qcpgroup.com, 4. cryptoslate.com, 5. www.bloomberg.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.fxstreet.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.qcpgroup.com, 12. www.qcpgroup.com, 13. www.qcpgroup.com, 14. www.fxstreet.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.fxstreet.com, 17. m.economictimes.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.fxstreet.com, 20. www.bitget.com, 21. www.bitget.com, 22. cryptoslate.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.marketwatch.com, 25. www.financemagnates.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.barrons.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.fxstreet.com, 30. www.qcpgroup.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.qcpgroup.com, 34. www.qcpgroup.com