Bitcoin Price Will Fall to $44,488: Here’s Why Experts Are Convinced
June 10, 2026
Key Takeaways
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Podcast host Jason Williams predicts Bitcoin could bottom at $44,488.
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Gary Cardone agrees that Bitcoin remains vulnerable.
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Arthur Hayes believes the AI investment boom is delaying Bitcoin’s next bull run.
Bitcoin’s price could still have one more major leg lower before the current market cycle reaches its ultimate bottom, according to a growing group of experts who argue it has yet to complete a pattern seen in every previous bear market.
Jason Williams, host of the “Going Parabolic” podcast, said based on historical cycle behavior that a price floor will settle at $44,488.
The prediction drew support from investor Gary Cardone, who has recently warned that deteriorating conditions could create additional downside pressure for Bitcoin.
Going Parabolic Host Says Bitcoin Price Could Bottom Near $44,488
Williams said Bitcoin’s realized price — the average on-chain cost basis of all holders — was the key metric to watch.
He outlined his thesis in a post on X, noting that Bitcoin’s realized price currently sits near $53,600 and highlighted that every major cycle low has historically occurred after Bitcoin traded below that level.
According to Williams, Bitcoin’s 2011 bear-market low was roughly 58% below the realized price, while the 2015 and 2018 cycle bottoms were approximately 49% and 47% below the metric, respectively.
During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin ultimately bottomed about 34% beneath its realized price.
Williams argued that the progressively smaller drawdowns beneath realized price suggest a trend of diminishing downside across cycles.
If that pattern continued forward, he projected that the next cycle low could occur around 17% below Bitcoin’s current realized price — implying a downside target of approximately $44,488.
“Bitcoin has NEVER bottomed in a cycle without trading below the Realised Price,” Williams wrote.
Gary Cardone Says Market Still Faces Demand Problem
Cardone endorsed Williams’ analysis, responding on X that investors should pay close attention to the argument.
His comments come after consistent warnings from the investor that Bitcoin’s price was significantly weak and being dragged down by other pressures across the crypto space.
“By Wed or Thursday, everyone will realize, BTC is weak,” he wrote on X on June 9.
“Bitcoin needs Buyers….. Without buyers, Sellers will get pushy,” he added.
The investor has also identified Ethereum as a major risk factor for the industry, warning that if the network fails to regain momentum, hundreds of dependent projects could face severe stress.
He has described large portions of the digital asset ecosystem as lacking sustainable business models and generating little revenue, creating what he sees as systemic fragility beneath the surface of the market.
“The asset needs real demand to recover,” Cardone said during a recent appearance on Yahoo Finance’s “The Daily Wolf.” “When supply exceeds demand, prices fall.”
While Cardone has said he remains a long-term Bitcoin buyer, he has cautioned that prices could decline substantially before attracting stronger institutional demand.
At the time, he suggested Bitcoin could potentially revisit levels as low as $38,000 if selling pressure intensified.
Where Bitcoin Price Stands Now
Bitcoin was trading at roughly $61,562 on June 10, hovering near one of the most closely watched technical support zones of the current cycle.
The crypto slipped below its 200-week simple moving average near $61,800 earlier this month.
This area has historically been viewed as a major long-term support area during bear markets.
At the same time, Bitcoin remains in a prolonged “death cross” configuration, where the shorter-term 50-day moving average remains below the 200-day moving average.
According to Fidelity Digital Assets’ analysis, the current death cross has persisted for more than 200 days, a duration that rivals some of the deepest correction periods seen in prior market cycles.
Arthur Hayes Says AI Bubble Must Burst Before Bitcoin Price Can Recover
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently offered another reason why Bitcoin may struggle to launch its next major bull run: the artificial intelligence investment boom.
In a recent essay, Hayes argued that AI-related companies have attracted the overwhelming majority of global investment capital since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022.
According to Hayes, investors and lenders have committed massive sums to fund data centers, semiconductor capacity, and AI infrastructure, creating an investment cycle he believes is increasingly fragile.
“AI sucked up all the created dollars. Bitcoin never had a chance,” Hayes wrote.
The crypto veteran estimates that roughly $1.5 trillion of debt has been issued to finance AI expansion over the past several years.
Hayes believes technology stocks and Bitcoin have become increasingly important together as they both compete for the same pool of speculative capital.
“The connection between Bitcoin and AI stock prices means we must have a view on whether AI stock prices are in a bubble and when it is likely to pop,” he wrote.
Although Hayes remains bullish on Bitcoin over the longer term, he warned that a sharp correction in AI-related assets could initially drag crypto lower.
“Bitcoin cannot rally in the short term if the entire world takes serious losses from the deflation of the AI bubble globally,” Hayes said.
Still, Hayes ultimately expects any AI-driven downturn to create the conditions for Bitcoin’s next major advance.
“Eventually, it will bottom, then rise as Bitcoin forecasts an increase in liquidity,” Hayes wrote, adding that he expects Bitcoin to “dump then pump.”
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