Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose above $90,000 on Wednesday, but some strategists warned the price action isn’t necessarily a sign of meaningful V-shaped recovery despite a risk-on mood in the stock market.

While the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) aimed at a fourth straight day of gains amid increasing investor bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, the world’s largest cryptocurrency appeared to steadily increasing after hitting an $81,000 last Friday, its lowest level since April.

“Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite are normally highly correlated, but that correlation has broken down in recent weeks with a much sharper drop in the price of Bitcoin,” Torsten Slok, chief economist for Apollo Management said in a note. (Apollo Management is the owner of Yahoo Finance)

Despite the recent bounce, bitcoin is down roughly 30% from its all-time high north of $126,000 in October,

While the fourth quarter is often the strongest for bitcoin, “history shows those gains rarely come without a catalyst,” strategists at Singapore-based 10X Research said in a note.

The market is expecting a 25 basis rate cut in December, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s messaging afterward in a press conference may be what matters most the direction of crypto prices.

“Bitcoin, in particular, has been highly path-dependent on Fed communication rather than on the mechanical act of cutting rates,” 10X Research said. “As a result, we do not view a December cut, if it occurs, as necessarily bullish for Bitcoin. And if the Fed does not cut, the risk of a sharper market sell-off likely increases.”

The firm pushed back on expectations increased Treasury General Account (TGA) spending, akin to the government’s checking account, would boost markets as spending would take place now that the US government shutdown is over.

When the TGA last released roughly $522 billion, bitcoin initially fell about $14,000, or 15%, and only bottomed after further spending took place, with a lag of over two months between February and April 2025, according to 10X Research.

“This raises the possibility that the TGA–Bitcoin relationship is either delayed or more theoretical than causal,” said the note, adding the the TGA still remains elevated.

“If a similar two-month lag were to apply this time, assuming the relationship holds at all, Bitcoin could continue consolidating into late January 2026 before any liquidity-driven impact becomes visible,” the note said.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel isn’t calling a bottom on bitcoin yet.

“A defining trait of bear markets is swift relief rallies followed by aggressive selling into strength,” said Engel, signaling near-term resistance between $92-95k if the token rallies that far.