Bitcoin set for new ATH: Smart money and strong tech point to breakout
June 26, 2025
A daily chart pattern now forming in Bitcoin has historically triggered 78% of the time and was highlighted by Cointelegraph on Thursday. Analysts are closely watching: if history repeats, BTC could soon challenge or surpass its recent all-time high above $111,800.
According to NewsBTC, recent on‑chain data shows retail investors (“weak hands”) are selling, while large holders and institutions are aggressively accumulating:
- Retail decline: Wallets with <1 BTC shed ~54,500 BTC YoY (~220 BTC/day).
- Institutional surge: Large wallets (+1,000 BTC) added ~507,700 BTC YoY (~1,460 BTC/day).
- Supply squeeze: Daily issuance is now ~450 BTC post‑halving; institutions are absorbing 7× more than retail is dumping.
This creates a classic scenario: weak hands get flushed out, smart money builds positions—a setup often preceding major breakouts.
Cointelegraph via TradingView notes a “normal and healthy” pullback around the 50‑day SMA (~$105,700).
Trading tools show concentrated long-liquidations just below ~$107,100, suggesting a potential shakeout before another upward thrust.
1. On‑Chain Fundamentals Back the Pattern
The 78% accuracy pattern aligns with strong accumulation behavior from serious investors, strengthening the breakout thesis.
2. Technical Conditions Favor Bitcoin Price Breakout
A consolidation near $105–$108K, if it holds support, could pave the way for a clean breakout above $110K–$112K.
3. Psychological Boost from Institutions
As large holders and funds dominate inflows, retail FOMO could accelerate momentum, propelling BTC into fresh highs.
| Bull Case | Risks |
|---|---|
| Pattern has strong historical success rate | Breakout may fail—volume confirmation is crucial |
| Large holders loading up = supply suppression | Pullbacks below 50‑day SMA (~$105.7K) could test weak hands again |
| Technical consolidation supports upward bias | Broader macro factors (Fed policy, geopolitical) may disrupt momentum |
If Bitcoin holds firm above the $105K support and the 78% accurate pattern plays out, BTC could target its next all-time high (~$111K) and potentially stretch toward the $120K level observed in broader market analysis.
- Retail traders can use the 50-day SMA (~$105K) as a risk checkpoint.
- Long-term investors benefit from on-chain insights showing institutional accumulation.
- All users should monitor volume during breakout—this confirms strength and validity.
- A proven chart pattern signals possible upside.
- Institutional capital flows are offsetting retail sell-offs.
- Technical repair near $105–108K might prep BTC for a rally.
- Watch for confirmed breakout above $110K on strong volume.
This evolving setup makes tracking both price action and on‑chain metrics essential. Subscribing to alerts and adjusting entry/exit around pivotal levels can position investors ahead of the next leg higher.
Disclaimer: This article is informational only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence.
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