The price of Bitcoin stumbled early Wednesday after the White House clarified how high tariffs on Chinese goods can be and Coinbase analysts warned of a brewing “crypto winter,” but the asset later regained ground to trade flat.

In a fact sheet published on Tuesday, the Trump Administration said “China faces up to a 245% tariff on imports,” reflecting 125% “reciprocal” levies, a 20% tariff “to address the fentanyl crisis,” and so-called Section 301 tariffs, which range between 7.5% and 100% on certain goods.

An editorial published in China Daily, a media outlet owned by the People’s Republic of China, called for the U.S.’s “capricious and destructive behavior” to come to an end around the same time. America should “stop whining about itself being a victim in global trade,” it said.

The leading cryptocurrency was recently changing hands around $85,000, unchanged over the past day, according to crypto data provider CoinGecko. Altcoins showed steeper losses, with Ethereum, XRP, Solana, each falling 2% or less.

Souring Sino-U.S. relations continue to put investors on edge, but U.S. President Donald Trump has hinted at progress with other nations. He expressed optimism on his social media website Truth Social on Wednesday, saying a deal with Japan could be “worked out” possibly today.

Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs have contributed to sustained headwinds for risk assets, David Duong, global head of research at crypto exchange Coinbase, wrote in a Tuesday note. 

Despite an improving regulatory environment marked by legislative debate and Trump’s pro-crypto slant, “the path to recovery for crypto remains challenging,” he wrote, arguing a cautious outlook may be warranted through the next four to six weeks.

Within crypto circles, the term crypto winter is often equated with a bear market. For stocks, that looks like a 20% fall from a recent high, however, Duong said the rule-of-thumb doesn’t map cleanly onto digital assets, which are relatively volatile and trade 24/7.

Instead, Duong pointed to Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average, arguing it’s a better tool for identifying market trends. When Bitcoin is consistently trading below its 200-day moving average, that suggests “downward momentum,” while the opposite is also true. 

Duong noted that Bitcoin recently broke below its 200-day moving average amid Trump’s trade war. As the price of altcoins drop and venture capitalists pull back, Duong wrote that these are “hallmarks of a potential crypto winter rising.”

On Wednesday, Bitcoin was trading above its 200-day moving average of $80,000, according to Barchart. Last Monday, the asset’s price fell as low as $74,800.

Edited by James Rubin