Bitcoin shows relative stability as summer approaches. According to some crypto analysts, however, this calm could precede a more difficult phase. Between trader frustration, unfavorable seasonality, and excessive optimism, warning signs are multiplying. Detailed analysis in the following paragraphs!

Bitcoin faces its worst historical quarter

According to CoinGlass, the third quarter is historically the worst performing for BTC. Data shows an average return of only 6.03% since 2013. In comparison, the fourth quarter boasts an impressive 85.42%. The crypto market thus seems to follow a well-established seasonal trend.

For many crypto analysts, bitcoin will likely underperform in the third quarter of 2025. One reason cited is the Fed’s monetary policy, which maintains its interest rates stable despite pressures. This stance indeed reduces bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative yield asset.

That’s not all! The arrival of summer holidays could also cause a drop in trading volume, increasing the risks of unexpected volatility! Retail investors might then be tempted to take profits, making the crypto market more unpredictable.

Too much optimism might harm bitcoin

Brian Quinlivan, an analyst at Santiment, notes growing euphoria around a new high for the BTC price. According to him, this excessive anticipation often results in the opposite effect. In other words, the crypto market could move contrary to retail investor expectations.

Certainly, bitcoin is trading only 2.1% below its all-time high. Nevertheless, a technical resistance might prevent price increases. This situation could open the way to a potential catch-up by Ethereum, whose recent rebound is attracting growing attention.

Indeed, Ethereum has surged nearly 90% since April (compared to a more moderate rise in bitcoin). If the bull cycle of the crypto queen is exhausting, the second-largest capitalization could benefit. Some analysts even predict a price of $3,000 within a few days.

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The rest of the summer thus looks uncertain for bitcoin. Between historical data, technical analysis, and psychological dynamics, the market could well surprise… to the downside. What if it were finally time for Ethereum?