Bitcoin’s latest plunge, one of the sharpest capitulation events since late 2022, has rattled crypto markets and dented investor confidence. But despite the steep pullback and rising bearish sentiment, one market strategist argues the downturn may already be over.

Market analyst Astronomer says there is a 91 percent chance Bitcoin will not close below its current weekly lows, arguing that historical capitulation patterns, which have consistently preceded major reversals in past market cycles, strongly support the outlook.

Bitcoin price stands at 88,573.22USD on November 25, 2025.

The analysis is based on a capitulation-volume model that examines weekly candle patterns, pinpointing potential market bottoms by identifying three consecutive high-volume red candles that have historically appeared just before major price reversals.

Astronomer argues that the biggest risk for investors right now is prevailing sentiment, noting that widespread advice to wait for confirmation, or concede the bull run is over, is surfacing at exactly the wrong time.

Such cautious herd behavior, the analyst noted, usually appears at market bottoms, not peaks. Those who sell now or hold off until trends look clearer often end up re-entering later, forced to buy back in at much higher prices.

According to the Coinpaper website, the analyst added that fear-driven decision-making tends to mirror the broader crowd. Markets typically reward investors willing to move against prevailing sentiment when the data support it.

Supporting the bullish case, Bitcoin’s value-to-transaction ratio has fallen to -1.6, a metric comparing the asset’s market cap with its transaction volume. Readings at this level have previously signaled undervaluation and opened the door to short-term mean-reversion opportunities, suggesting the price has drifted away from its underlying network activity in a way that favors buyers.