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Bitcoin will likely reach a new price record in 2026, according to cryptocurrency asset manager Grayscale.

“We believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove to be incorrect, and that Bitcoin’s price will potentially make new highs next year,” Grayscale said in a note released on Dec. 1.

The four-year cycle refers to a historical pattern that has seen Bitcoin boom and burst once every four years. The cycle has historically aligned with Bitcoin’s so-called “halvening,” a programmed event that halves the amount of new Bitcoin created. Following the cycle, this year was widely expected to be Bitcoin’s up year and 2026 is expected by some to mark the beginning of a prolonged downturn, widely referred to as “the crypto winter.”

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However, Grayscale said the cycle looked set to break, citing the lack of a parabolic price surge in Bitcoin’s price this year.

“Bitcoin’s market structure has changed,” Grayscale also said, citing more passive and consistent inflows from exchange-traded funds and digital asset treasury companies.

Grayscale added that the broader macroeconomic environment is also favorable for Bitcoin.

For one, Grayscale said it expects interest rates to be much lower going forward, which is typically positive for risk assets and stores of value such as gold. The firm cited anticipated interest rate cuts on Dec. 10 and reports that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is now in the front running to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

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Hassett had applauded the Fed for cutting rates in September, calling it “a good first step in the right direction of much lower rates.”

Grayscale also said anticipated cryptocurrency market structure legislation could provide another catalyst for Bitcoin, by potentially driving more institutional flows. The passage of the bill hinges on cryptocurrencies remaining a bipartisan issue despite the coming midterm elections, the firm said.

Grayscale’s note comes as Bitcoin has fallen as much as 36% from its record price of $126,200 in October. However, Grayscale said this price decline is par for the course for Bitcoin. The firm said the asset has dipped “at least 10% about 50 times since 2010,” adding that the average decline has been 30%.