Bitcoin’s plunge produces technical signal that implies 60% more downside to come
November 24, 2025
French acrobat Olivier Mathieu mimics recent price action in crypto (Emanuele Cremaschi/Getty Images)
“Longer term dip buying right now appears less likely and bearish momentum is reinforced,” writes Tallbacken Capital Advisors CEO, Michael Purves.
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The rout in bitcoin is poised to produce a bearish technical signal that has meant “substantial more downside to come” in four of its prior five instances, according to. Michael Purves, CEO of Tallbacken Capital.
He’s looking at the signal generated from the monthly moving average convergence/divergence indicator (or MACD). The technical gauge, in this case, takes the difference between the 26-month exponential moving average (EMA) of an asset with its 12-month EMA. The difference between those two is the MACD — and when that MACD crosses below its own 9-month EMA, what’s known as the signal line, that’s considered to be bearish (vice versa if crossing above).
November is slated to be the sixth time this monthly MACD sell signal has been generated in bitcoin’s history. 80% of the time, bitcoin has gone on to fall about 60% after this technical breakdown occurs.
“Longer term dip buying right now appears less likely and bearish momentum is reinforced,” writes Purves.
Separately, Purves also observed that bitcoin has had a much higher positive correlation with other asset classes compared to the first half of 2021, another period when there was immense appetite for tech stocks in general and speculative ones in particular. However, he expects some of this strong relationship to begin to wane in the near term.
“In the immediate term, we note that Bitcoin is very oversold (daily RSI) at 22 and has been bouncing off the 80k level, the point of the Liberation Day lows,” concludes Purves, who does not have a position recommended on the cryptoasset as this time. “Some near term consolidation should be expected.”
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In October, shareholders James Lu and Raymond Zage, who together already own more than 60% of the gay dating app, proposed to buy the remaining shares of the company and delist it from the New York Stock Exchange. They said they would use a $1 billion loan and $100 million in their own cash to fund the deal.
“To date, the Special Committee has been unable to obtain satisfactory information about definitive financing,” Grindr said in a Monday morning press release.
Representatives for Lu and Zage did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Rumblings of the take-private deal led the stock to jump after shares slid starting this summer. While the two huge shareholders are hoping to buy out Grindr stock at $18 a share, a premium from current levels, it was above $20 as recently as July.
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Google Distributed Cloud will be leveraged by the Joint Analysis, Training, and Education Center to “modernize its operational capabilities and handle classified workloads,” per the press release, which said these solutions would be provided in the coming months.
Google highlighted that its sovereign cloud environment is in a “hardened, air-gapped environment, disconnected from the internet and public cloud.”
“Multi-million” is small fries compared to the tens or hundreds of billions we’ve seen thrown around in recent AI compute deals. But this represents an immense potential opportunity to tap into demand from governments and international agencies that want to secure advanced computing resources.
Read More: Why countries are seeking to build “sovereign AI”
Wedbush hikes its Carvana price target by 5% to $400, sending shares up
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Wedbush upgraded Carvana to “outperform” from “neutral” and hiked its price target on the stock 5% to $400, 29% above the stock’s level heading into this week. In a research note on Monday, analyst Scott Devitt wrote that Carvana shares’ pullback in the past month, primarily attributed to weakness in its rival CarMax and rising concern around credit markets, is overdone.
According to the note, Carvana is on track to surpass CarMax’s retail sales volume by the fourth quarter of 2026, “six months earlier than initially forecasted.” In recent comparable quarters, Carvana is trailing CarMax’s unit sales by about 45,000 vehicles.
Wedbush expects Carvana to reach its 5 to 10-year retail unit sales goal of 3 million annual used vehicle sales by 2033.
Michael Burry launches paywalled Substack after de-registering his hedge fund
“The Big Short” investor Michael Burry just launched a new Substack called “Cassandra Unchained,” after recently de-registering Scion Asset Management from the SEC. One of his first posts takes aim at Nvidia and the topic of the wider AI “bubble.”
Earlier this month, Burry teased on X that he’d be “on to much better things” on November 25. Exactly where his Substack — which he unveiled last night with letters recalling his past warnings, from shorting Amazon in 2000, to Greenspan brushing off a housing bubble in 2005 — fits into that remains to be seen.
The post getting the most attention so far lays out why he sees the AI boom as a bubble rooted in “supply-side gluttony,” Business Insider reports. Burry argues that today’s AI cycle mirrors the dot-com period, when markets were also led by highly profitable giants — the so-called “Four Horsemen” (Microsoft, Intel, Dell, Cisco). The problem back then, according to Burry, was “catastrophically overbuilt supply and nowhere near enough demand,” a dynamic that’s “just not so different this time,” with Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Oracle, plus startups like OpenAI — driving massive build-outs that may outstrip real demand.
Burry singles out Nvidia as the modern Cisco, the company at the center of the 2000 dot-com bubble that eventually plunged 78% in the crash. In a recent X post, he also separately accused major tech firms of understating depreciation on their computing hardware, saying it “artificially boosts earnings.”
Earlier this month, Burry teased on X that he’d be “on to much better things” on November 25. Exactly where his Substack — which he unveiled last night with letters recalling his past warnings, from shorting Amazon in 2000, to Greenspan brushing off a housing bubble in 2005 — fits into that remains to be seen.
The post getting the most attention so far lays out why he sees the AI boom as a bubble rooted in “supply-side gluttony,” Business Insider reports. Burry argues that today’s AI cycle mirrors the dot-com period, when markets were also led by highly profitable giants — the so-called “Four Horsemen” (Microsoft, Intel, Dell, Cisco). The problem back then, according to Burry, was “catastrophically overbuilt supply and nowhere near enough demand,” a dynamic that’s “just not so different this time,” with Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Oracle, plus startups like OpenAI — driving massive build-outs that may outstrip real demand.
Burry singles out Nvidia as the modern Cisco, the company at the center of the 2000 dot-com bubble that eventually plunged 78% in the crash. In a recent X post, he also separately accused major tech firms of understating depreciation on their computing hardware, saying it “artificially boosts earnings.”
Novo Nordisk sinks after Ozempic’s key ingredient fails to slow down Alzheimer’s in trials
Novo Nordisk is down nearly 9% in trading in Europe, with its US-listed ADRs dropping a similar amount, after the pharma giant shared that oral semaglutide — a key ingedient behind its Ozempic and Wegovy drugs — didn’t slow Alzheimer’s disease in two trials.
Per the company’s press release, oral semaglutide failed to show a statistically significant reduction in early-stage Alzheimer’s disease progression compared to a placebo across two large-scale, late-stage trials. From the release:
The two trials were randomised, double-blinded, enrolled a total of 3808 adults and evaluated the efficacy and safety of oral semaglutide compared to placebo on top of standard of care.
Treatment with semaglutide did result in improvement of some Alzheimer’s disease-related biomarkers, but it “did not translate into a delay of disease progression.”
Noting that the trials were conducted “despite a low likelihood of success” from the start, chief scientific officer Martin Holst Lange commented that, “while semaglutide did not demonstrate efficacy in slowing the progression of Alzheimer’s disease, the extensive body of evidence supporting semaglutide continues to provide benefits for individuals with type 2 diabetes, obesity, and related comorbidities.”
Injectable semaglutide, sold under the brand names Ozempic and Wegovy, is approved to treat diabtes, obesity
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