STOCKWATCH INDEX CANNABIS MARKET UPDATE DECEMBER 2025

January 4, 2026

STOCKWATCH INDEX CANNABIS MARKET UPDATE DECEMBER 2025

Analysts Price Targets & Growth Estimates (2025–2026)

Improving Analyst Consensus

Published by: StockWatchIndex Editorial Team
Rainer Poertner, Chief Analyst

SWI Portfolio Stock Values increased by 22% – A Spread of 29.3%

The overall SWI Cannabis Portfolio performance has increased by 22% from a 7.3% decline in October, with a spread of 29.3% from November. There is now a growing consensus among analysts that a strong recovery will be underway by 2026. The global cannabis market is projected to expand at a high CAGR through 2030, with some forecasts indicating growth of ~30%+ per year, driven by medical and legalization trends. U.S. federal policy shifts (e.g., rescheduling to Schedule III) are widely seen as major catalysts that could expand access to capital, reduce tax inefficiencies such as 280E, and accelerate institutional adoption.

Strong Financial Discipline – Less Speculative Investment

Improving Analyst Consensus

U.S. federal policy shifts (e.g., rescheduling toward Schedule III) are widely seen as major catalysts that could expand access to capital, reduce tax inefficiencies such as 280E, and accelerate institutional adoption to improve financial performance for major players.

Analysts Price Targets & Growth Estimates (2025–2026)

1. Tilray Brands (TLRY)

· Consensus 12-month price target: ~$20.00 average — implying ~105% upside from recent levels.

· High target: ~$30.00 / Low target: ~$10.00.

· Analyst ratings mix: mostly hold with some buy views.

· Growth expectations: modest revenue growth in 2026 (~2–6% YoY) across segments such as cannabis and wellness, despite some declines in beverage revenue.

· Upside catalysts: federal rescheduling reforms could unlock broader institutional investment and operational benefits.

👉 Summary: TLRY is seen as moderately undervalued with significant potential upside if regulatory tailwinds materialize.

2. Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF)

· Average price target: around $3.77 — slightly above recent prices.

· Analyst sentiment: predominantly buy/strong buy from most covering analysts.

· Revenue & cash flow forecasts: one analysis projects revenue growth from ~$1.27B in 2025 to ~$1.70B by 2029 and significant free cash flow improvement.

· Some forecasts from third-party news suggest average price targets are higher, but actual published Street targets are modest.

👉 Summary: CURLF shows modest price target expectations now, with potential for stronger growth if international expansion and margin improvements accelerate.

3. Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF)

· Consensus price target: roughly $15.42 in some market projections — implying ~30–40% upside.

· Analyst sentiment: generally buy/positive, supported by disciplined MSO execution.

· Growth expectations: ~4–5% revenue growth annually in the near term; benefits from improved retail productivity and cash flow.

· Regulatory upside: could see uplisting to major exchanges and wider institutional capital flows if cannabis is descheduled in the U.S.

👉 Summary: GTBIF outlook is constructive with solid mid-range growth, but still tied closely to broader sector moves.

4. Cronos Group (CRON)

· Analyst view: Buy consensus on some screens, though specific price targets vary.

· Zacks data: EPS estimates for 2026 improving (loss narrowing toward profitability) — potential sign of normalization.

· Price target context: earlier independent estimates have suggested upside of ~20–25% relative to current pricing.

👉 Summary: CRON is seen as a recovery/turnaround play with international diversification.

5. Smaller Cannabis Names (Context)

· Some analysts see substantial relative upside for names like SNDL (price targets suggesting >150% upside), though risk remains high.

· Other MSOs like Trulieve (TCNNF) often lack broad consensus pricing data but show strong performance in sector ETFs like MSOS.

Market Caps are improving – Some ROIs swing to Positive

The Typical Financial Yardsticks Apply

The winners will be those who combine CPG thinking, advanced cultivation science, strong brand identity, expansion into the wellness market, and rigorous cash-flow management. In other words, cannabis companies will succeed for the same reasons any sophisticated consumer-goods company does: strategy, execution, differentiation, and discipline.

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