In recent years, when extreme summer heat has seen electricity demand peak, manufacturers in southern China’s Guangdong province have asked the same question: will power shortages return?

In 2021 and 2022, China’s small and medium-sized manufacturers were hit by power shortages that triggered production curbs and factory shutdowns, disrupting supply chains in sectors ranging from electronics to metals. Tight coal supply and surging overseas orders all contributed to the shortages.

This summer, that concern has largely faded in Guangdong, China’s main manufacturing hub and one of the country’s biggest power consumers, even as forecasters warn that a strong El Nino is likely to raise electricity demand around Asia.

El Nino is a climatic phenomenon that causes periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, shifting global weather patterns and leading to heavy rain in some areas while bringing drought to others.

“Power rationing is hardly a topic of conversation any more,” said Tan Jianli, who runs a lighting factory in Zhongshan.

That lack of concern reflects broad changes in China’s power system since the last shortages. Renewable generation capacity has surged, industrial estates have rapidly added rooftop solar installations, and grid operators can move growing volumes of electricity across regions to meet local shortages.