by Umud Shokri

The geopolitical environment surrounding renewable technology
and essential minerals is changing dramatically as the globe speeds
up its journey to sustainable energy. China, which has become the
main actor in the global supply chain for clean energy, is at the
heart of this change.

In 2025, Beijing’s strategic location in renewable technology
and vital minerals has taken center stage in international affairs,
especially in respect to its relations with the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) nations. Energy diplomacy, economic diversification
initiatives, and the worldwide competition for technological
leadership in the clean energy sector are all being reshaped by the
dynamic interaction between China and the GCC states. In addition
to affecting bilateral relations, the complex web of dependencies,
rivalries, and partnerships in vital minerals and renewable
technologies is also having an impact on international initiatives
to fight climate change and ensure sustainable energy futures.

China’s Critical Minerals Dominance

China’s dominance of important supply chains, decades of
strategic investment, and state-led policies have given it
near-total control over the vital rare earth minerals sector. China
has established itself as a crucial participant in the global
energy revolution by refining most rare earth elements (REEs), as
well as other vital battery metals like cobalt, nickel, and
lithium. Its vertically integrated supply chains guarantee that
Chinese companies produce the parts and finished goods needed for
clean energy technology, in addition to extracting and processing
these minerals. Beijing’s position in the green energy industry is
cemented by this degree of control, which offers it a competitive
advantage in the production of solar panels, wind turbines, and
electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Its leadership is further
strengthened by its substantial investments in mining activities
abroad, especially in Africa and Latin America, which guarantee
access to vital resources outside of its boundaries.

China’s hegemony over vital minerals extends beyond its control
over resources and has wider geopolitical and economic
ramifications. With 57 percent of the world’s EV manufacturing, 71
percent of battery cells, and 65 percent of battery components,
China has significant influence over the price, supply stability,
and technological developments of the global clean energy market.
Western countries are now more concerned about supply chain
vulnerabilities and strategic dependence as a result of this.
Consequently, through regulatory measures, domestic manufacturing
projects, and collaborations with other suppliers, the United
States and the European Union are attempting to lessen their need
for Chinese critical minerals.

China-GCC Energy Cooperation

Due to shared goals in energy security, economic
diversification, and technical cooperation, China and the GCC
countries’ energy alliance is developing quickly. China is the
largest energy consumer in the world and has few domestic petroleum
reserves; consequently, it has become a major purchaser of GCC gas
and oil. However, Beijing has attempted to lessen the costs of its
oil addiction by also making investments in the region’s supply
chain integration, infrastructure, and renewable energy
initiatives.

Recognizing the changing nature of the world’s energy markets,
the GCC countries are strengthening their ties with China by
establishing long-term energy agreements, partnering on clean
energy technology, and making strategic investments in vital
mineral supply chains to help them achieve their own energy
transition goals.

China’s Role in the GCC’s Renewable Energy
Expansion

Benefits from the China-GCC energy partnership flow both ways.
By supplying state-of-the-art technology, capital, and
infrastructure development to the nations of the Gulf, Chinese
businesses are significantly contributing to the GCC’s renewable
energy shift. By 2027, Trina Solar, one of China’s top solar energy
companies, plans to build the world’s largest photovoltaic plant in
the United Arab Emirates, reaffirming China’s position as a key
collaborator in the growth of solar energy in the region.

As seen by the high rise in lithium battery shipments to the
GCC—which rose by 26 percent between 2021 and 2022 and nearly
doubled in the first three quarters of 2023—China’s impact goes
beyond solar power to energy storage solutions. In line with their
long-term sustainability objectives, this trend shows the GCC’s
growing use of energy storage devices and electric mobility
options.

In line with their long-term sustainability objectives, the GCC
states see collaboration with China as a crucial part of their
economic diversification plans and initiatives to lessen reliance
on oil. GCC leaders have reasoned that their ambitious clean energy
goals—notably Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s Net Zero by
2050 effort—can be enhanced by China’s enormous manufacturing
capacity in renewable energy technology, such as solar panels, wind
turbines, and battery storage.

Chinese companies are desirable partners for major energy
projects in the area because they provide cutting-edge technologies
at extremely affordable costs, thanks to economies of scale and
overcapacity in their home renewable energy sector. Through this
synergy, China finds new markets for its excess output and the GCC
accelerates its energy transition, creating a win-win cooperation
that transforms the energy landscape of the region.

Implications and Challenges

Global power dynamics and supply chains are being reshaped by
the growing China-GCC energy alliance, which has important
geopolitical and economic ramifications. This partnership is in
line with China’s overarching plan to subvert Western hegemony in
important economic domains, especially energy and vital minerals. A
change in market leadership is evident as Chinese corporations gain
traction in the GCC and increasingly outbid Western engineering and
technology firms for large energy projects.

For instance, China is the principal provider of 24 of the 50
minerals that the U.S. Geological Survey has classified as
“essential”—meaning in effect that the United States is still
largely dependent on China for these minerals. Washington is aware
of this problem, and is aggressively attempting to create supply
chains that do not come via China in response, interacting with GCC
countries to diversify sourcing and protect its strategic
interests. With the GCC becoming a major arena for energy and
resource dominance in the global energy transition, these
developments underscore the growing rivalry between China and the
West.

Challenges for the GCC in Securing Critical Minerals from
China

The GCC still confronts several obstacles in obtaining vital
minerals from China, even with the expanding energy ties. As the
United States looks to create alternative supply chains,
geopolitical competition is a crucial element that puts the GCC in
a precarious balancing act between two powerful nations.

Furthermore, although China maintains control over the market
for rare earth elements generally, it is having trouble obtaining a
steady supply of several essential minerals, which may affect its
capacity to continuously supply the GCC. Market volatility is still
an issue since China’s hegemony in mineral processing might result
in erratic price swings, making procurement plans more difficult
for GCC countries. Export limits increase unpredictability even
more, and China has shown that it is prepared to use these controls
as a geopolitical tool. The GCC countries that depend significantly
on Chinese commodities can see the risks of this approach, and will
plan accordingly.

Another challenge is competition from Chinese investors, who
actively protect vital mineral supply lines around the world. They
frequently have greater risk tolerance and quicker project
development skills. The GCC may have less access to other partners
or sources because of this competition. Furthermore, GCC countries
that depend on Chinese suppliers face difficulties in aligning with
global Environmental and Social Governance (ESG) norms, which place
growing pressure on them to follow sustainable practices in vital
mineral supply chains.

Beyond resources, China dominates the whole clean energy supply
chain, including solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries—making
the GCC technologically dependent. The GCC’s capacity to obtain
vital minerals at reasonable costs may be hampered by worries that
China may manipulate pricing on global markets. The GCC needs to
invest in its own processing capabilities, diversify its supply of
essential minerals, and exercise prudence when navigating the
intricate geopolitical environment to meet these difficulties.
Prudence would dictate that the GCC states find alternatives to
Beijing in case of an emergency. For instance, supply security
could be improved by establishing alliances with alternate
suppliers, encouraging joint ventures in areas with abundant
resources, and using financial and diplomatic clout. Long-term
stability in their energy transition and economic diversification
initiatives will also depend on encouraging innovation in clean
energy technology and minimizing dependency on a single
provider.

A key component of the global energy transition is the changing
energy relationship between China and the GCC nations. China is a
vital partner for the GCC, which is working toward ambitious
sustainable energy targets. China’s financial ability to fund
extensive mineral extraction and renewable energy projects further
strengthens this alliance, allowing the GCC to diversify its
economies and promote its climate objectives.

But there are risks associated with this relationship as well.
Over-reliance on China for essential minerals presents the GCC with
difficulties, such as possible supply chain interruptions and
geopolitical pressures from the rivalry between the United States
and China. Furthermore, the GCC is vulnerable as it looks to
establish autonomous and sustainable supply chains due to China’s
near-monopoly on downstream and processing technologies. The GCC
must investigate diversification tactics, like establishing
alliances with other international entities and making investments
in regional mineral processing capacities, to reduce these risks.
This link will continue to play a significant role in determining
the overall course of the global energy transition, as well as the
resilience of the local economy.

Image credit: CNN

The views and opinions expressed by guest columnists
in their op-eds may differ from and do not necessarily reflect the
views of the editorial staff.