CLARITY Act Expert Gives Bill 70% Odds: Here's What It Means For Bitcoin

CLARITY Act Expert Gives Bill 70% Odds: Here’s What It Means For Bitcoin

May 23, 2026

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Galaxy Digital Head of Research Alex Thorn gives the CLARITY Act 70% odds of passing and says it could put Bitcoin “on a path to new all-time highs” if signed into law.

Nine Weeks Left To Pass Before August Recess

Congress has about nine weeks of session time left before the August recess, with 6 to 7 weeks of work needed to get the bill to President Trump’s desk, Thorn said in an interview with Cointelegraph on Thursday.

After August, very little gets done through the midterm elections in November.

The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill last week on a bipartisan basis after Senator Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Senator Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) broke ranks to vote yes.

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This came after the committee was supposed to vote in January but delayed four months to negotiate stablecoin yield provisions.

“If the bill fails, if you ask me in a year why, I would bet statistically it would be because of this issue,” Thorn stated, referring to ethics provisions that would prohibit elected officials from buying, selling, or issuing digital assets.

Democrats Want Ethics Rules On Elected Officials

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D- NY) has been vocally calling for provisions that would prohibit elected officials and their families from benefiting from crypto appreciation.

The push comes after President Trump’s controversial meme coin launch.

The White House signaled it might accept ethics provisions as long as they apply broadly to all officials and don’t specifically target the president and vice president.

Constitutional questions arise when Congress imposes restrictions on Article Two officers of the executive branch.

“This feels like the final boss of issues,” Thorn explained. “If we can clear that, you’ll see a positive bipartisan vote to pass it out of the Senate.”

Banks Lobbying Against Stablecoin Yield Provisions

Banks argue the bill would cause massive deposit flight as customers move money into stablecoins offering higher yields.

The expert called this argument “cynical” and “nonsensical,” pointing out Americans already park cash in money market funds earning yield.

Research shows that for every dollar of domestic deposit migration, $2 of net new cash would flow into the US banking system from abroad.

Banks are also fighting tokenized securities provisions and other aspects of the bill.

New All-Time Highs On The Table If Bill Passes

Thorn upgraded his prediction to 70-75% odds of passage, diverging from Polymarket traders who give the bill 61% odds.

He noted he’s been contrarian to Polymarket throughout the process—bearish when traders were bullish, now bullish when they’re more cautious.

“If CLARITY passes, the path to new all-time highs is on the table for this year,” Thorn stated, though he warned Bitcoin currently trades around $76,000 and wouldn’t “rocket to $115” immediately. However, the bill would put the crypto market “on a new positive footing.”

Image: Shutterstock

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