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As Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to reclaim its all-time high after a price crash below the critical $80,000 mark, concerns about the cryptocurrency’s future outlook have intensified. Ki Young Ju, the founder and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of CryptoQuant, has stepped forward with an on-chain backed explanation, arguing that the Bitcoin bull market has officially ended. 

Bitcoin Bull Market Officially Over

In an X (formerly Twitter) post on March 5, Ju announced to all and sundry that the Bitcoin bull market is over, with only bearish conditions awaiting after the cryptocurrency’s plunge below $80,000. He argues that the current market indicators, including Market Capitalization and Realized Capitalization, signal the end of Bitcoin’s upward movement for the next six months. 

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Using these key metrics, he painted a sobering picture for investors hoping for a swift price recovery or near-term bull rally following Bitcoin’s recent crash. In a detailed breakdown, the CryptoQuant CEO highlighted the relationship between Market Capitalization and Realized Capitalization in determining if Bitcoin is in a bull or bear market. 

Ju explained that Realized Capitalization is the actual amount of capital entering the Bitcoin market through on-chain activity. This metric works by tracking when Bitcoin enters a blockchain wallet and when it leaves. Through this method, an estimation of the average cost basis for each wallet can be determined. 

On the flip side, Bitcoin’s Market Capitalization is based on the latest trading price and doesn’t necessarily reflect the actual capital inflow. Ju pointed out that many people often misinterpret this concept, assuming, for instance, that a $10 Bitcoin purchase directly increases its Market Cap by the same amount. In reality, Market Cap is influenced by the balance between buy and sell pressure on the order book rather than just individual transactions. 

Typically, during bull markets, small capital inflows tend to drive prices significantly higher, meaning Market Cap surges while Realized Cap remains relatively flat. According to Ju’s analysis, this trend is no longer the case for Bitcoin. He revealed that even large capital inflows are failing to move the Bitcoin price higher — a clear indicator of a bear market.

BTC Growth Rate Chart Supports Bear Market Thesis

A chart by CryptoQuant supports Ju’s bearish stance on Bitcoin. It shows the growth rate difference between the cryptocurrency’s Market Cap and Realized Cap.

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The red areas in the chart are bearish phases, showing that Bitcoin’s Realized Cap is growing much faster than its Market Cap. On the other hand, the green zones show that the market was in a bullish state, with capital input generating strong price increases for Bitcoin. 

Currently, Bitcoin has plunged into the red, validating the crypto CEO’s analysis that while capital is still flowing, the market has failed to respond positively. Historically, such conditions have required at least six months to reverse fully, indicating that Bitcoin is likely heading into a prolonged correction or consolidation, typical of a bear market.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com

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