• In early January 2026, Vistra announced 20-year power purchase agreements with Meta Platforms to supply more than 2,600 megawatts of zero-carbon nuclear energy from three of its plants in Ohio and Pennsylvania, including large capacity uprates and plans to seek 20-year license extensions for each reactor.

• This move makes Meta an anchor corporate buyer for one of the largest nuclear uprate programs in the U.S., tying Vistra’s nuclear fleet directly to long-term AI data center power demand while supporting regional tax bases and job creation.

• We’ll now look at how these long-dated Meta nuclear contracts, anchored in AI-driven power needs, may reshape Vistra’s investment narrative.

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To own Vistra, you have to believe that structurally higher electricity demand from AI and data centers will support long-lived generation assets while the company manages its sizeable debt load. The Meta nuclear PPAs appear to reinforce near term contract visibility rather than change the key near term catalyst, which is execution on growth projects without materially worsening leverage, or the main risk around elevated borrowing needs and refinancing flexibility.

The recent agreement to acquire Cogentrix Energy for about US$4.7 billion sits alongside the Meta deals as part of a larger buildout aimed at serving power hungry customers like data centers. While the Meta contracts focus on zero carbon nuclear output, the Cogentrix transaction highlights how Vistra is also leaning on modern gas capacity to meet reliability needs, which links directly back to investor concerns about funding expansion while keeping leverage and interest coverage under control.

But investors should also be aware that if credit conditions tighten and Vistra’s leverage remains elevated, then…

Read the full narrative on Vistra (it’s free!)

Vistra’s narrative projects $24.5 billion revenue and $3.4 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 9.8% yearly revenue growth and a $1.2 billion earnings increase from $2.2 billion today.

Uncover how Vistra’s forecasts yield a $233.29 fair value, a 40% upside to its current price.

Thirteen members of the Simply Wall St Community see Vistra’s fair value anywhere between about US$142 and US$365 per share, underscoring how far opinions can spread. Against that backdrop, the long dated Meta nuclear contracts highlight how power producers with visible, contracted demand can still carry meaningful balance sheet risk that readers may want to weigh through several different lenses.