Does Ryder’s 241% Five Year Rally Still Leave Room for Investors in 2025?

December 20, 2025

  • Wondering if Ryder System is still worth buying after its big run, or if most of the upside is already priced in? You are not the only one taking a closer look at the stock right now.

  • Ryder has quietly kept climbing, with the share price up 1.1% over the last week, 13.9% over the past month, and 22.4% year to date, building on 25.6% over 1 year and 241.1% over 5 years.

  • Recent headlines have focused on Ryder expanding its logistics and fleet management offerings, along with strategic investments to strengthen its dedicated transportation and supply chain solutions. These moves can justify a re-rating when investors see durable growth. At the same time, the market is weighing how these initiatives might reshape Ryder’s long term competitiveness in a still cyclical transportation space.

  • Despite that strong performance, Ryder currently earns a valuation score of 4 out of 6 on our checks, suggesting there may still be pockets of undervaluation. In the next sections, we will unpack how different valuation methods stack up, before finishing with a more holistic way to think about what the market might be missing.

Ryder System delivered 25.6% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Transportation industry.

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today, reflecting the time value of money and investment risk.

For Ryder System, the model uses last twelve month Free Cash Flow of about $195 million in cash and projects a steep ramp up, with analyst supported and extrapolated forecasts rising to roughly $6.5 billion in annual Free Cash Flow by 2035. These projections are generated using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, where higher near term growth gradually tapers to more sustainable long term levels. Each of these future cash flows is discounted back to today and summed.

On this basis, Ryder’s intrinsic value is estimated at about $1,328 per share, implying the shares are trading at an 85.6% discount to this DCF value. This indicates the market is pricing in far weaker or riskier cash flow outcomes than this model assumes.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Ryder System is undervalued by 85.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 912 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

R Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
R Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Ryder System.

Price to Earnings is a useful way to value profitable companies like Ryder because it links what investors pay today to the earnings the business is already generating. In general, faster growth and lower risk can justify a higher PE ratio, while slower growth and higher risk usually mean the multiple should sit lower.

Ryder currently trades on about 15.47x earnings, which is well below the Transportation industry average of roughly 31.12x and also below the broader peer group average of around 43.69x. On the surface, that discount suggests the market is more cautious about Ryder’s growth durability or cycle risk than it is about many peers.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Ryder is 14.87x, a proprietary estimate of what a reasonable PE multiple should be given the company’s earnings growth profile, profitability, size, industry and specific risks. This makes it more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the sector, which can be skewed by very high growth or very risky companies. With Ryder’s actual PE of 15.47x sitting just above the 14.87x Fair Ratio, the stock appears broadly in line with its fundamentals on this measure.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

NYSE:R PE Ratio as at Dec 2025
NYSE:R PE Ratio as at Dec 2025

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1464 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, an easy way to connect your view of Ryder System’s story with a concrete forecast and Fair Value on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions of investors share their perspectives. A Narrative is your story behind the numbers, explaining why you think Ryder’s future revenue, earnings and margins will look a certain way, then translating that into a Fair Value you can compare to today’s share price to help you decide whether to buy, hold or sell. Narratives are powerful because they update dynamically when new information like news, earnings or guidance arrives. This means your Fair Value and conviction can adapt as the facts change rather than staying frozen in time. For example, one investor might build a Narrative around accelerating reshoring, higher margins and successful buybacks that supports a Fair Value closer to about $215 per share. A more cautious investor might stress freight cyclicality and competition, landing closer to $183. Narratives make those different viewpoints obvious, comparable and actionable.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Ryder System? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:R 1-Year Stock Price Chart
NYSE:R 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include R.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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