The Seattle Times reported that the executive order is “counter to decades of environmental policy” that is specific to the Pacific Northwest, where federal forests have been largely off limits to logging of old-growth trees since the adoption of the Northwest Forest Plan in 1994.

While the move poses environmental risks — members of the Climate Forests Coalition issued a statement saying that the order would decimate federal forests and take away from species protection, recreation, clean water and air — it also leaves homebuilders in limbo to navigate a supply chain shakeup and newly introduced tariffs. 

“I do believe that if the U.S. moves to greater self sufficiency in lumber production, it could help stabilize supply chains and reduce reliance on imports,” said Michael Feazel, CEO of Roof Maxx Technologies. “With that said, in the short term, this could very much lead to a number of challenges. The lumber industry as a whole requires significant time and investment to expand domestic production capacity, and if demand remains higher, increasing supply won’t immediately lower costs.

“Factors like labor shortages, transportation costs and mill production rates will still influence pricing. … While promoting domestic lumber production could provide long-term stability, immediate cost relief for housing and lumber will depend on broader market conditions, including interest rates, labor availability and overall housing demand.”

Jenna Stauffer, a Florida-based global real estate adviser at Sotheby’s International Realty, said that the immediate news of the tariffs directly impacts the already struggling housing market and ongoing affordability crisis. A call for increased domestic lumber production that could place upward pressure on sawmills and timber industry occupations only adds to concerns.

“Tariffs create short-term uncertainty,” Stauffer said in a statement. “Their goal is to strengthen U.S. manufacturing, create jobs, and raise wages, but the immediate impact will be increased cost for builders and buyers, leading to new home sales prices rising.”

Michael Goodman, director of finance and general counsel for New York-based Sherwood Lumber Corp., is optimistic about Trump’s directive if the right investments come out of it.

“It’s a step in the right direction, but the reality is that meaningful change won’t happen overnight,” he said. “There is some immediate opportunity. Existing mills can increase shifts, optimize production and push output where possible. But to make real headway, we need either new mills or significant reinvestment in older facilities, both of which take time and capital.”

Goodman conceded that Canadian imports have been the backbone for U.S. production thus far.

“The U.S. simply doesn’t have the capacity right now to meet domestic demand on its own,” he said. “That’s why Canadian imports have been so critical, and tariffs will inevitably push costs higher throughout the supply chain. The executive order seems like a direct response to homebuilders’ concerns, but unless real investment follows, we’re not going to see a major supply shift anytime soon.”

Canadians fear a recession

Jhon Blando, the owner and founder of Ontario, Canada-based Bloom Homes, said that unpredictable lumber prices amid a supply chain adjustment could skew construction budgets, leading to unreliable homebuilding expectations for both the buyer and builder.

“If the U.S. pushes to rely only on its own lumber, I believe builders are going to see higher prices at first as supply chains adjust,” Blando said. “Over time, prices will most likely level out.

“The real question is whether domestic production can grow fast enough to keep up with demand. If production can’t keep up, costs will probably rise. I’ve seen how unpredictable lumber prices can throw off construction budgets, and unless this plan is executed carefully, it could do more harm than good.”

Carl Gomez, CoStar Group’s chief economist and the head of market analytics for Canada, said that people are already struggling with housing affordability enough across North America without tariffs and added pressure to domestic timber supply.

“Canada’s biggest trading partner is the United States, so a lot of the structure of our economy is dependent on these trading relationships. Unfortunately, it is probably single-handedly the biggest economic issue for Canadians right now. … These tariffs are worse than COVID-19 or the great financial crisis in terms of the impact on Canada, because of the impact on its economy,” Gomez said. “Most economists in Canada think that if these tariffs are sustained, that it would likely cause a recession, and a relatively deep one at that.”

Gomez, who is based in Toronto, added that “it’s not as big a hit to the American psyche right now because tariffs and trade are such a nebulous issue. Most people just go about their business buying stuff in the grocery store, but when the price of your avocado and the cost of your home starts to go up, sooner or later, that’s going to feel an impact.”