Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin (BTC) won’t enter a bear market this year, according to Ki Young Ju, the chief executive of the digital asset analytics firm CryptoQuant.

In a new post on the social media platform X, Young Ju outlines BTC’s current price dynamics.

“Bitcoin Cost Basis at $95,000:

• ETFs/Custody Wallets: $89,000

• Binance Traders: $59,000

• Mining Companies: $57,000 – Falling below this level in past downturns (May 2022, March 2020, November 2018) confirmed a bear market.

• Old Whales: $25,000 – Never breached historically.”

The CryptoQuant CEO also notes that MicroStrategy’s BTC cost basis is currently $65,033. The firm holds $45.91 billion worth of Bitcoin at time of writing, the largest corporate BTC treasury in the world, according to BitcoinTreasuries.net.

Young Ju says Bitcoin’s price range “seems broad” in 2025, but he doesn’t think it will officially switch into a bear market.

“I personally think that the bull cycle could continue even with a -30% dip from all-time high (e.g., $110,000 ? $77,000), as seen in past cycles.”

BTC is trading at $95,930 at time of writing. The top-ranked crypto asset by market cap is up more than 2% in the past 24 hours but down more than 1% in the past week.

Bitcoin is also nearly 12% down from its all-time high of $108,786, which it set on January 20th.

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