• In recent days, AutoZone reported fiscal 2026 first‑quarter earnings that came in below analyst expectations, even as domestic same‑store sales grew and the company added 53 new stores across the US, Mexico, and Brazil.

• At the same time, several research firms have turned more cautious on the stock and trimmed their earnings estimates, highlighting a tension between AutoZone’s resilient operations and more reserved analyst sentiment.

• Next, we’ll examine how this shift toward more cautious analyst views, despite solid same‑store sales growth, affects AutoZone’s investment narrative.

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To own AutoZone, you generally need to believe its auto parts model can keep generating steady cash flows through varied economic conditions, helped by commercial and DIY demand. The key near term catalyst remains execution in U.S. commercial and international expansion, while the biggest current risk is rising cost pressures on margins. The recent earnings miss and more cautious analyst revisions highlight that margin and earnings trends are under closer scrutiny, but do not appear to alter the core business case in a material way yet.

Against that backdrop, the most relevant development is the series of analyst downgrades and price target cuts, including Mizuho’s move to Neutral with a US$3,550 target and Barclays’ lower US$3,800 target. These shifts come even as AutoZone added 53 new stores across the U.S., Mexico and Brazil and grew domestic same store sales by 4.8%, underscoring the tension between operational growth catalysts and concerns about earnings power and valuation.

Yet behind AutoZone’s reputation for stability, investors should be aware of how higher SG&A and cost inflation could pressure margins and…

Read the full narrative on AutoZone (it’s free!)

AutoZone’s narrative projects $22.5 billion revenue and $3.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 6.0% yearly revenue growth and about a $0.5 billion earnings increase from $2.6 billion today.

Uncover how AutoZone’s forecasts yield a $4331 fair value, a 27% upside to its current price.

Two Simply Wall St Community members currently value AutoZone between US$3,246.89 and US$4,331.35, highlighting a wide spread in individual fair value views. Against this, the recent earnings miss and cautious analyst EPS revisions put a sharper focus on whether AutoZone’s commercial growth and international expansion can meaningfully offset rising cost and margin pressures over time.