The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has presented a draft of a new basic energy plan to a panel of experts for review. Designed to guide Japan’s medium- to long-term energy policy, it clearly includes nuclear power. Indeed, it states that nuclear energy should be utilized to the maximum extent possible.

Japan’s basic energy plan is revised every three years. Regarding nuclear power, the plan drawn up in 2014 after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident called for “reducing dependence on nuclear power as much as possible.” That stance has been maintained ever since. However, the new plan looks more objectively at the use of nuclear energy. 

Electricity is an essential energy source for daily life and industrial activity. If Japan cannot achieve both decarbonization and a stable and inexpensive power supply, its national strength will be negatively impacted.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has dramatically changed the energy picture, making energy security even more important. Furthermore, electricity demand is expected to increase due to the advent of generative AI (artificial intelligence) and other developments. 

We welcome the government’s clearly stated revised policy on utilizing nuclear power. This source can generate a stable supply of large amounts of electricity without emitting carbon dioxide.

The new plan calls for nuclear power to account for around 20% of total electricity generation by FY2040. That essentially maintains the level of 20-22% to be achieved by FY2030.

To achieve these targets, the criteria for nuclear power plant replacement will be eased. For example, after decommissioning a power plant, an electrical power company will be allowed to build a new plant on the site of another nuclear power plant owned by the same power company. 

After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, new construction and replacement of existing nuclear power plants came to a halt. Moreover, related companies began to withdraw from the business or go out of business. Hopefully, the inclusion of a policy calling for the use of nuclear power in the new energy plan will help maintain nuclear power technology in Japan.

At the same time, renewable energy is expected to account for about 40-50% of electricity produced in FY2040. That makes it the largest source of electricity for the first time. Indeed, the level is projected to roughly double from the 22.9% recorded in FY2023. 

Meanwhile, thermal power generation, which accounted for 68.6% of power output in FY2023, is set to account for only around 30-40% by FY2040. Given the need for decarbonization, that seems appropriate.

The question is how to achieve this power mix. For example, increased reliance on nuclear power stations raises the question of how to create final disposal sites for spent fuel. At the same time, increasing the use of renewable energy, which is affected by weather fluctuations, could make it impossible to avoid some instability in the power supply. In addition, the decarbonization of thermal power is also an urgent task. 

Measures to resolve these issues must be simultaneously implemented to strengthen Japan’s energy supply system. The new plan must not end up as a mere exercise in juggling numbers.

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(Read the editorial in Japanese)

Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun