Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022 exposed a structural weakness in Europe’s energy system: its deep dependence on fossil fuel imports. Over the past four years, the EU and member states have successfully secured alternative gas supplies and signed many new deals with countries around the world. This “energy diplomacy” has shown what the bloc can achieve in a geopolitical emergency situation that undermines governments’ ability to keep the lights on for their citizens.

But the EU remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, which meet nearly 60% of the bloc’s energy demand. This creates import dependency: the EU’s dependence on oil imports stands at 90%, and on gas imports at 85%. Europe’s energy security—in its primary, conservative sense as security of supply—thus relies strongly on relations with external partners and the mercy of geopolitics. The fallout for European energy prices caused by the Iran war is only the latest iteration of this problem.

European energy diplomacy has also managed to develop a more progressive dimension. For example, the EU and member states have increased efforts to conclude agreements on the supply of critical raw materials (CRMs) and cooperation on hydrogen. However, they still need to not only diversify their supplies but also secure access to new value chains linked to the energy transition, including technologies and raw materials for renewables, hydrogen and synthetic fuels. They can do this by signing agreements with countries outside Europe that have strong potential for renewable energy production.

This policy brief examines the ways in which European energy diplomacy has reshaped the energy landscape within the EU. It draws on ECFR’s Energy Deals Tracker, which records the most important energy agreements concluded by the EU and member states with third countries. The tracker maps the notable successes of the EU’s and member states’ energy diplomacy as they find alternative sources of fossil fuel supplies, particularly in the gas sector. It follows how many energy agreements EU countries concluded in individual sectors between 2022 and 2026. More particularly, it identifies how many of these were binding, how many were only indicative and how many contained elements of clean energy.

The paper finds that agreements concluded individually by member states are the most numerous by far, with many fewer deals concluded by the EU itself or via collective action undertaken by member states clubbing together. European energy diplomacy has proved itself to be creative and vigorous over the last four years. Nevertheless, the policy brief identifies ways the EU and member states can work more closely together, specialise and divide up tasks for mutual benefit and complete the final phasing out of Russian fossil fuels.

About the author

Szymon Kardaś is a senior policy fellow on energy within the European Power programme, based in ECFR’s Warsaw Office.