By Wylie Saviello

Northeast Florida environmental experts say that the St. Johns area will soon reach a tipping point in environmental protection as rising sea levels, development and global warming continue to harm the ecologically rich, but fragile ecosystems throughout the region. 

“If we don’t plan for the future, we have so much to lose. We are well aware of what we stand to lose, because we are actively losing it,” said Katie Bauman, Florida Policy Director of the Surfrider Foundation. 

Bauman spoke on the state of the environment alongside other leaders from First Coast News, the Whitney Laboratory for Marine Science and the Matanzas Riverkeeper. In the event organized by Indivisible St. Johns County, experts discussed global warming, overdevelopment, water quality and how to address these issues. 

The message from all panelists was clear: Lasting action must be taken now before the environment reaches a point of no return. 

Tim Deegan, retired meteorologist from First Coast News, explained how global warming causes stronger storms, including winter storms becoming more intense than they used to be. That effect is incredibly relevant as Florida has seen record-low temperatures within the past few weeks.

“More heat equals stormier weather,” Deegan said. “If we look at peer-reviewed papers, they say we’re warming 100 times faster than any other time in Earth’s history … that’s a whole lot faster than most life can handle.” 

Both Deegan and Dr. Todd Osborne from the Whitney Lab explained that while sea level rise used to happen in small increments, it is rising rapidly now in increasingly large amount. Radical scientists in the 80s and 90s said that there were times in Earth’s history when water levels rose in a straight line and then suddenly, “like a tipping bucket,” went off the charts. According to Deegan, the majority of scientists now predict that future sea level rise will follow the tipping bucket theory. 

“Some would say that makes this a crisis,” Deegan said. 

Osborne discussed how this acceleration of sea level rise worsens storm surges and raises water salinity. Repeatedly higher storm surges turn neighborhoods into marshes, like the Davis Drive area off U.S. 1. Additionally, increased salinity causes coastal forest retreat, killing the pine and goat trees in Fish Island. 

“It only takes a few inches in Florida to make an upland a marsh. What’s really weird is that a change in sea level also elevates our terrestrial groundwater,” Osborne said. 

Osborne said that there is still room for wetland expansion, but not if it gets sold off to developers and filled in. He highlighted resiliency as the key to building up and protecting the community and way of life.

Osborne’s call to action emphasizes the power of social media to spread awareness of local issues. He also encouraged attendees to call their legislators to voice their worries about the environment to impact policy.

Overdevelopment is a top issue for one of the fastest-growing states in the country. The Florida 2070 Project predicts that one-third of the state will be developed by 2070 if development continues at the same rate. The same project also predicts that Florida’s water use will be doubled by 2070, and that development will be the main source of that increase. 

Water quality was also a priority topic at the meeting, coming in the wake of a 2025 lawsuit against the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for failing to adopt water quality protections in Florida’s waters. 

Jen Lomberk of Matanzas Riverkeeper said that most of the state’s waterways do not meet designated water quality standards. She stressed the importance of acting now, saying it is much easier to prevent pollution and to keep a waterway clean than it is to fix or restore it after it has become polluted.

“Really dealing with how we treat our landscape is something that we need to be cognizant of in order to prevent some of this pollution from getting into our waterways,” Lomberk said. 

Also mentioned was the EPA’s online platform, How’s My Waterway, which allows users to enter a specific address or creek name and get a breakdown of which waterways are meeting water quality standards, if they aren’t, and what pollutants are contaminating them. However, there are gaps in the data, and the platform lacks information on some waterways. 

Lomberk explained that the state prioritizes wastewater infrastructure in new developments, rather than focusing on fixing existing wastewater infrastructure that has been failing. But not all hope is lost; Lomberk, amongst others, presented plans of action. 

“I think we have a huge opportunity at the local level because we have a really engaged community … that being said, there’s been a disturbing trend where the state has started to step in and preempt local governments from adopting certain types of regulations,” Lomberk said. 

Bauman wants to address these issues with nature-based solutions, a more ecosystem-focused, comprehensive approach to resilience. The Surfrider Foundation prioritizes this approach to reap benefits such as flood mitigation, providing buffers, natural filtration, and wave attenuation. 

In Northeast Florida specifically, Bauman says this looks like dune restoration, wetlands protection, native plants, invasive removals, protecting public conservation land and seeking more land acquisition. 

“We have got to be looking at these options that are more dynamic, more adaptable, and not the default of building back harder, bigger and higher,” Bauman said. “That is not the answer, and we can see that in places where that has been the default answer. 

Because man-made issues have removed the ability for the coast to replenish itself naturally, beach renourishment projects and hard armoring projects like seawalls and bulkheads are sometimes necessary, but it’s not that simple. 

“What we know about hard armory is that eventually it does fail, and that is an opportunity to incorporate hybrid approaches or green approaches,” Bauman said. 

Bauman and Lomberk explained that hard armoring projects are hard to fund, require ongoing maintenance, and oftentimes can exacerbate some of the issues they are intended to fix 

“The thing about engineering a landscaping ecosystem or shoreline in particular is generally once you start to engineer it, you have to keep engineering it,” Lomberk said. 

Bauman also stressed the power of community effort by bringing up how widespread community outrage over the Great Outdoors Initiative in 2024 led to the State Parks Preservation Act. She encouraged the audience to continue this approach regarding the ongoing Guana Land Swap issue. 

“We have had the opportunity to see how community, stewardship, and science are leveraged into policy,” Bauman said.