Despite the market flipping risk-on, there’s still no clear rotational flow.

Historically, this setup keeps capital Bitcoin [BTC]-heavy, limiting follow-through into alternative assets. While this cycle doesn’t look much different on the surface, a key metric might be hinting otherwise right now.

On the daily charts, Ethereum [ETH] dominance has been holding up well. After the late-November dip to 11.5%, four lower highs set up a bounce back towards 13%, lining up with ETH chopping sideways within the $3k-$3.5k area.

Source: CryptoQuant

In short, ETH’s consolidation around support might not be random. 

Instead, as the chart above revealed, Ethereum whales have been defending their $2,796 cost basis, representing the realized price for long-term holders (LTHs) with the price bouncing off that level three times.

Alongside a similar structure in Ethereum dominance, it’s clear ETH’s chop around $3k has been whale-supported. The real question now is whether ETH’s ROI actually backs these positions or starts raising the risk of capitulation.

Ethereum whales hold the line without a macro tailwind

Without a macro catalyst, bulls might be leaning on conviction.

Notably, Ethereum whales illustrated this perfectly. Since 21 November, they have accumulated 4.8 million ETH, equalling 4% of the circulating supply while driving their holdings from 22.4 million to 27.2 million.

Hence, it’s no surprise that Ethereum dominance and the whales’ realized price line up with this period, backing ETH’s whale-support. Consequently, their $2,796 cost basis has now become a key level to watch.

Source: CryptoQuant

At the press time price, these whales are sitting on about $4.8 billion in profits.

Naturally, the key metric to watch now is Ethereum’s Estimated leverage ratio (ELR), which hit a six-month high of 2.964. Simply put, for every $1 of ETH held without leverage, there’s about $2.96 of borrowed exposure.

Hence, with leverage building, no macro catalyst, weak rotational flows, and volatility still high, the risk of whales pulling back remains elevated. This leaves Ethereum vulnerable to another liquidation cascade.

Final Thoughts

• Ethereum whales are defending their $2,796 cost basis, holding strong through sideways price and sitting on roughly $4.8 billion in unrealized profits.
• Rising leverage (ELR at 2.964), combined with weak rotational flows, keeps ETH at risk of a de-leveraging cascade.