Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) is rangebound around $4,500, but a decisive move may be on the cards within the next two months.

What Happened: In his latest podcast update, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted that ETH’s behavior mirrors the 2016–2017 cycle, when Ethereum lagged Bitcoin during its October surge, trading in a range while waiting for its 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA (“bull market support band”) to catch up.

He expects a similar pattern now: dips toward ~$4,000 likely attract buyers, while resistance near prior cycle highs may cap rallies.

Cowen warns against assuming ETH will immediately follow Bitcoin’s moves.

Historical patterns show BTC strength can precede ETH by weeks, as seen in September when Bitcoin gained ~5% while Ethereum fell ~5%.

On market flows, rising BTC dominance (from ~57% to ~59% since early September) suggests liquidity continues to consolidate in Bitcoin, often pulling strength away from altcoins like ETH until the bull market band signals a breakout.

Also Read: Grayscale Launches Wall Street’s First Ethereum, Solana Staking ETFs

What’s Next: Macro events such as a potential late-October Bank of Japan rate hike could temporarily extend the range before Ethereum resumes upward momentum.

Cowen’s base case anticipates ETH ranging as its support band rises, then eventually breaking out to continue its market-cycle run, with the next bear market expected in 2026.

Ethereum may continue a patience-driven consolidation near $4,500–$4,000 before a structural breakout aligns with its long-term bull cycle.

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