Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score, a key metric for assessing whether its native token, Ether ETHUSD, is overvalued or undervalued, has dropped to its lowest level in 17 months, signaling that the second-largest cryptocurrency could be bottoming.

Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Score nears accumulation zone

The MVRV Z-Score, which compares Ethereum’s market value to its realized value, is now close to the green zone, historically associated with undervaluation. This metric suggests that ETH may be trading at a discount relative to the total capital inflow into the network.

The last time the MVRV Z-Score hit such low levels was in October 2023, just before ETH rebounded by almost 160% in the following months toward the $4,000 milestone. Similarly, the score’s dip to the green zone in December 2022 and March 2020 preceded historic bull runs.

Furthermore, CryptoQuant data shows that daily ETH inflows into accumulation addresses have spiked to their highest level in years, surpassing previous accumulation phases seen before major bull runs.

This suggests that institutional investors and long-term holders are aggressively accumulating ETH while its MVRV Z-Score remains undervalued. Ethereum’s onchain data tracking whale addresses echoes this, too.

Notably, Ethereum whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH have been aggressively accumulating over since July 2024, when multiple Ether-specific spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) went live for the first time in the US.

Most of the accumulation trend period coincides with Ether’s price pullback, indicating that these whales are buying the dip. In other words, large investors anticipate ETH price will increase in 2025.

Can ETH price reclaim $4,000?

As of March 6, ETH is trading near $2,291, testing the lower trendline support of the symmetrical triangle and the 200-week EMA ($2,294).

This support confluence is reinforcing the possibility of a strong rebound from current levels. Historically, similar confluences have preceded major trend reversals, setting the stage for a rally toward the triangle’s upper trendline at around $3,650.

Ethereum’s price action aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels, adding further confluence to a potential bullish breakout.

The 0.382 Fib level (~$2,518) is a key hurdle for bulls, with a successful reclaim opening the door toward $3,000 (0.5 Fib) and eventually $3,420 (0.618 Fib)—a historical resistance zone.

A breakout beyond these levels should set up ETH for a retest of $4,063 (0.786 Fib) near the triangle’s upper boundary.

Conversely, a decisive break below the triangle’s lower trendline may invalidate the rebound setup overall. Instead, ETH’s price will risk declining toward $1,050, aligning with the 0.0 Fibonacci retracement line.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.