The real loser of this phase of difficulty for the crypto markets at this moment seems to be the price of Ethereum. 

Although it is not the crypto that loses the most, many hoped it would hold up better than the others, and instead it is going through a moment of strong suffering, especially when compared to that of Bitcoin. 

Moreover, its problems seem to come from afar, despite still being the undisputed leader of DeFi, and they could be exacerbated by a drop below $1,800. 

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The all-time high of the price of Ethereum (ETH) is still the $4,900 reached in November 2021. Since then, it has not even come close to this figure again.

In fact, it has tried three times to break through the $4,000 wall, succeeding only partially and only for a short period. 

The first two were carried out before the launch of the ETF on ETH spot on the US Exchanges, and this is probably the watershed event that is causing the price of Ethereum the main problems.

Last year it had approached $4,100 in March, riding the wave of new all-time highs of Bitcoin after the launch on the US exchanges of the spot BTC ETFs, and in May it had attempted another failed assault on $4,000.

With the electoral victory of Trump in November, it managed to reach $4,100, but only thanks to the mini-altseason that lasted just over two weeks.

In fact, already the following month it had returned to $3,000.

After that first crash, there were even three more, one at the beginning of February with the drop below $2,500, one at the end of February with the drop below $2,100, and a recent one with a brief drop even below $1,800.

Although it has now slightly risen above $1,900, it should be remembered that at the end of October before Trump’s electoral victory, it was above $2,400.

This loss of more than 20% compared to the end of October looks really bad. 

Observing the price chart of Ethereum over the last two years, and comparing it with that of Bitcoin, a problem that occurred in August of last year clearly emerges. 

In fact, while Bitcoin fell from $68,000 to $55,000, with a drop of almost 20% already almost completely absorbed by the end of the month, the price of Ethereum fell from $3,500 to $2,300, with a 30% drop that was not absorbed. In fact, it only ended the following month at $2,200, just two months from the American elections. 

In particular, a significant drop is noted in August 2024 in the price ratio between ETH and BTC, which went from 0.052 to 0.042. That decline is still ongoing, so much so that the ratio has now dropped even to 0.023, and since it started last July at 0.056, it clearly shows how much Ethereum is struggling compared to Bitcoin. 

In July 2024, not coincidentally, the ETFs on ETH spot were launched, and while the launch of the ETFs on BTC spot in January was a great success, the launch of the ETFs on Ethereum turned out to be a problem in the short term. 

In fact, over the previous years, Grayscale had accumulated a lot of excess ETH in its fund, and as soon as this was converted into an ETF, it was able to liquidate them very quickly. This rapid liquidation of large amounts of ETH significantly drove down its price between July and August, but subsequently, the inflows into those ETFs were not sufficient to make it recover. 

The consequences of that problem do not yet seem to have been absorbed, moreover the crypto markets for some time now have been focusing almost exclusively on Bitcoin.

In fact, the altseason index of CMC reveals that since the end of February, they have entered Bitcoin season, which is the opposite of the altcoin season, precisely because they are largely disinterested in altcoins (including Ethereum) and are focusing on Bitcoin.

Although this is actually typical of difficult phases, the fact remains that for the prezzo di ETH it is a disaster, albeit probably only temporary. 

It should not be forgotten that the current price of BTC is still significantly higher than the $70,000 it had before Trump’s electoral victory, so much so that the loss accumulated from the highs of two months ago stops at a mere -25%. ETH, on the other hand, is at -60% from the highs of 2021. 

The TVL of DeFi, although declining, is still made up of more than 50% of assets on the Ethereum blockchain, even though among these there are many USDT, USDC, and DAI.

However, this specifically concerns the Ethereum blockchain, and not necessarily the native cryptocurrency Ether (ETH). 

In second place is Solana, with a meager 7.5%, and indeed the native cryptocurrency SOL is also in strong bear. 

Although it is only at -34% from the all-time highs of January, it has now fallen below $150 in October, with a cumulative loss since then of 25%, which is higher than that of Ethereum. 

In other words, Ethereum seems to be in particular suffering only because it is the main altcoin, but if its price trend is compared with that of other altcoins, its suffering appears to be in line with that of other crypto. 

The situation, therefore, is difficult but perhaps not tragic, even though everything now depends on Bitcoin, which can either boost or sink the crypto market at this moment. 

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To this already difficult scenario, a significant risk is added.

There is, in fact, a large DeFi loan on Sky (formerly Maker) that is at risk of being liquidated.

It was opened with 130 million dollars in ETH collateral, but the debtor (Sky Vault) had to put up another 2,000 ETH as additional collateral to avoid forced liquidation. 

The problem is that the loan liquidation level is only slightly above $1,800, and if it were to be forcibly liquidated, more than 67,000 ETH would be sold in an instant. This could further worsen the situation in the short term.