Ethereum (ETH) has started November with quiet optimism, climbing nearly 1% to trade around $3,875. Whale wallets have begun adding to their holdings again, signaling renewed confidence in a potential recovery.

But that optimism may be short-lived. A looming death cross could challenge buyers — and decide whether this early momentum can hold or fade.

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Ethereum whales are buying again, a pattern that resumed right before Halloween. On-chain data shows their combined holdings have grown from 100.89 million ETH to 101.09 million ETH in the past 48 hours.

It represents an increase of approximately 200,000 ETH, valued at roughly $775 million at current prices.

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That renewed buying shows big players are starting to position early, expecting November to be stronger than October. Retail traders seem to share that view. The Money Flow Index (MFI) — which measures how much money is flowing into or out of an asset — has been rising since October 28.

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Between October 22 and October 28, Ethereum’s price made lower lows, but MFI made higher lows, creating a bullish divergence. This pattern means money is flowing in even as prices dip — often a sign that buyers are quietly absorbing supply. Together, whale and retail buying show growing optimism, though long-term holders have started taking profits, slightly offsetting these inflows.

That optimism faces a serious threat on the charts. Ethereum’s 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) — a trend indicator that smooths price data to show short-term direction — is now close to crossing below the 100-day EMA, which tracks longer-term momentum.

This setup is called a death cross, when a short-term moving average drops under a longer one. It often signals that sellers are gaining control.

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This pattern is especially important because the previous death cross between the 20-day and 50-day EMAs in mid-October triggered a 13.7% correction. A repeat of that pattern could erase much of the whale-driven optimism now building.

If the 20–100 EMA cross confirms, Ethereum could slide lower, invalidating the cautious buying optimism seen this week. The pressure is amplified as long-term ETH holders continue selling, a trend visible since late October, which adds to downward risk and reinforces the death cross setup.

However, if buying from whales and retail investors continues and helps ETH moves above the 100-day EMA, the crossover could even fail to form. That would keep the market structure intact and give bulls a chance to extend the recovery.

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Ethereum’s chart now shows an unusually even balance between upside and downside potential. A 4.9% move either way could define its short-term direction.

If the death cross confirms and momentum weakens, ETH could drop 4.9% toward $3,680, followed by a possible slide to $3,446 if selling accelerates.

But if continued whale accumulation and retail inflows push prices higher, a 4.9% upward move would lift ETH to $4,069. A daily close above that level would confirm a short-term breakout. A daily close above that level would open the path toward $4,265 and $4,487, turning November into a potentially strong month for Ethereum.

With support and resistance sitting almost equidistant from the current ETH price, the next few days could determine whether Ethereum’s buyers manage to outrun the death cross — or get caught under it.