• Ethereum rose 13.41% this week to $1,809 but remains 63% below its 2021 high.
• Over 80,000 ETH recently flowed into derivatives exchanges, signaling rising trader anticipation and volatility.
• Over $600 million in Bitcoin moved to exchanges on April 23, hinting at possible market pullback.

Ethereum has been pushing back against recent market struggles, now trading at $1,809. The 13.41% increase over the past week has caught the eyes of analysts who are digging into the numbers for clues on whether this uptick can last or if turbulence is on the horizon.

Even with this fresh momentum, Ethereum is still sitting about 63% lower than its record high of $4,891, a peak it hit back in 2021. The broader downtrend that began in late 2021 still hangs over the market, reminding everyone that the road to recovery could be long and uneven.

Adding complexity to the current picture, recent data from on-chain movements and exchange activity hints that its future price swings might be influenced more by larger economic trends and strategic moves by big traders rather than organic growth.

A notable recent development is the sharp increase in Ethereum transfers to derivative exchanges. Analysts often view such behavior as a sign of increased speculative trading or shifts in traders’ expectations for upcoming volatility.

In a recent post, Amr Taha, a contributor for CryptoQuant’s QuickTake, noted that Ethereum experienced unusually large inflows to derivatives platforms in the past two days, with one particular surge crossing the 80,000 ETH mark. These spikes often occur when traders are either bracing for large price swings or preparing to leverage new positions.

Although that kind of movement is not a guaranteed signal for where the market might head, it does show rising anticipation among traders. A market on edge can break either way, and with so much ETH flowing into derivatives, caution is now setting the tone.

Taha highlighted that this spike in derivative inflows came around the same time as a key announcement from former US President Donald Trump. Trump confirmed that he has no plans to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a statement that reassured markets about the independence of the Fed.

Markets quickly interpreted this as a sign that there would be less political pressure on monetary policy, a crucial factor for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. While macroeconomic signals are not everything, in a jittery market, they still carry significant weight.

Taha emphasized how closely cryptocurrency markets are tied to central bank policy and broader economic health. A measure of stability on that front could help, but technical factors still seem to be leading Ethereum’s current moves.

Looking outside Ethereum, movements in the Bitcoin market could have an indirect impact on ETH’s price. On April 23, more than $600 million worth of Bitcoin was transferred from whale wallets to exchanges, the largest single-day inflow seen in weeks.

This happened after a surge in the BTC/GBP trading pair, which triggered major short liquidations. According to Taha, the transfer of such a large amount of Bitcoin might suggest that the market is setting up for a fall, especially if fresh selling pressure appears.

For Ethereum, this creates the risk of a short-term pullback. If Bitcoin faces heavy selling, it could drag Ethereum and other digital assets down as well. The buildup of long positions just under Ethereum’s current price levels combined with more ETH available on exchanges points to a landscape where liquidity tests are likely.

As Taha put it, “with the buildup of long liquidity below current price, and we might be looking at the classic ‘pump-then-dump’ setup, at least short-term.” 

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