Ethereum (ETH) briefly surged above $4,400 on Thursday, after a 3% gain over the past 24 hours. Despite intense volatility, September 2025 closed on a strong note.

With markets cautiously optimistic entering October, Ethereum now finds itself in conditions that could set the stage for a significant bullish breakout.

ETH Supply Crunch Alert

For the first time in history, Ethereum (ETH) is leaving exchanges faster than they can accumulate it. This has created an “aggressive” supply squeeze. Recent data shared by Alphractal shows billions of dollars’ worth of ETH have flowed out of trading platforms, whether measured in netflow or USD value.

The Exchange Flux Balance has turned negative for the first time ever. This metric tracks cumulative netflow.

Historically, high values mean exchanges were stockpiling ETH as inflows exceeded outflows, but the current negative reading shows that exchanges can no longer keep up with withdrawals. This points to surging demand from both institutional and retail investors, which is indicative of the strongest market-maker interest in Ethereum ever recorded.

The available supply shrinking on exchanges could potentially set the stage for a significant price rally. If this trend continues, ETH could face a historic supply-driven upside, as scarcity on exchanges amplifies buying pressure across the crypto market.

Analysts Predict Parabolic Run

As Ethereum reclaimed a major support level of $4,250 and surged past it, the next important milestones stand at $4,500 and $4,750 before a potential new all-time high. However, a break below $4,250 could push ETH down toward $4,000, according to market expert Ted Pillows’ observation.

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said that he expects strong outperformance from Ethereum in the coming weeks. He anticipates Bitcoin to initially bounce, then correct slightly, while ETH gains momentum, which could potentially lead to a broader rally across the entire crypto ecosystem, supported by the BTC pair holding steady.

Another pseudonymous researcher ‘EtherNasyonaL’ noted that Ethereum appears poised for a major upward move, as the cryptocurrency is showing patterns consistent with prior market cycles. Historically, ETH has followed a three-step trajectory: breaking major resistance, undergoing a running retest, and then entering a parabolic rally. They note that the market is now in the third cycle, and ETH has once again tested the same critical horizontal support level seen in previous cycles. In both these instances, this pattern was followed by a sharp, parabolic price surge.