Each week, Florida’s Office of Medical Marijuana Use (OMMU), which is part of the state’s Department of Health, releases data on the state’s medical cannabis program, including an active patient count, a qualified physician count, new dispensary approvals and an update for each operator. That data includes the number of dispensaries and the unit sales each week. This is the sixteenth New Cannabis Ventures monthly update on the Florida medical cannabis market. We also published a newsletter about the state in May 2024, suggesting that readers be careful with Florida. This article is based upon the update that was provided on 01/02 by the state for the week ending 01/01. Readers who are interested in the data going forward can visit the OMMU update page.

Patient Growth Has Slowed

We last updated on the Florida market in November, and the annual growth in patient count had fallen to 4.5% after having been 8.4% in late May a year ago. The rate of growth had picked up a bit from March, when it bottomed at just 3.0%, reaching 5.5% in late October. Annual growth has slowed again, and it ticked down this past week ending 01/01 to 3.9%. It has come down a lot:

While the number of patients is still increasing, the growth is very low and down substantially from just a few years ago. 930K patients represent 4% of the state’s population. The number of patients was declining ahead of the potential adult-use legalization but has increased slightly recently to a new high:

2024 ended with about 895K patients, and the growth since then has been 3.9%. The annual was above the 3.5% growth in 2024, which was hurt by the expected addition of adult-use cannabis, but well below the 11.0% growth in 2023.

Some program improvements over the years have helped excite Florida residents about the medical cannabis program, which now has smokable flower and edibles. Then, the post-pandemic population boom aided patient growth. There has been an increase in dispensaries to 738 from 702 a year ago. This is an increase of 5.1%, which is a bit faster than the medical cannabis patient growth has been at 3.9% since then.

Unit Growth Remains Very Strong

In the most recent week, sales of medical cannabis product units with THC increased by 23.7% from a year ago. Smokeable flower units expanded 17.7% from the week ending 01/02/25. Unit volume growths remain higher than the revenue gain and the patient gain. There are more stores, and unit volume is growing.

We shared that Florida revenue was up only 1.4% from a year earlier in April 2024 by the estimate of BDSA. This was a record low at the time, but all of the historical data was revised by BDSA for September. The April 2024 growth is now reported at -40.8%, which seems way off. We did reach out to BDSA, and they confirmed this estimate of revenue, as the total for the period of 2021-2025 is now much lower. Looking at the revised data for 2025, Florida’s sales growth, as projected by BDSA, has been volatile, with monthly year-over-year growth ranging from -6.8% (April) to +17.2% (June). In Q3, it grew 0.4% compared to Q3 of 2024, and it fell 3.4% in December. Patient growth and dispensary growth have led to unit growth, but the total sales were down from a year earlier.

Florida MSOs Are Weak

We warned readers on May 17, 2024 regarding the MSOs that are big in Florida, as investors seemed overly optimistic. The entire cannabis market has cratered since then, and the entire group of MSOs is sharply lower, especially after the defeat of the adult-use ballot initiative in November. All four leaders in Florida have declined substantially though 10/09/25, especially AYR Wellness, which was betting big on its operations in the state:

The overall sector, as measured by the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index, last night at 6.68, has declined by 38.3% since then as of 01/05, and the NCV American Cannabis Operator Index, which currently has eleven members and closed at 12.74, has dropped 38.5% as of 01/05. Three of the Florida 4 have dropped by more than both of them. MSOS, which has Curaleaf and Trulieve at 46.0% of the ETF currently, has dropped 53.7% since 5/16/24 to $4.53 (below the NAV of $4.57). Planet 13, which did an acquisition that made them a large player in Florida, has declined by 67.3%, which is better than two of the four Florida leaders.

Fourteen months ago, many were expecting Florida to legalize cannabis for adult-use, and the operators were expanding their dispensary count. While the majority of Florida voters did approve adult-use, the measure failed to get the 60% required to change the law. 2025 has seen more dispensaries, due in part to the completion of plans laid out before the failure of adult-use legalization to pass. The market is struggling with slow growth in patients, increased dispensaries open and competitive issues (like the sales of hemp-derived THC). The result has been flat revenue despite strong unit growth.

Investors were disappointed that Florida voters did not pass the adult-use legalization ballot initiative, and they likely will not be happy with a mature medical market that is slowing and becoming more competitive. Perhaps Florida will legalize for adult-use in 2026, but that is a long time from now. Investors should remain careful in our view with the big Florida operators, especially the two that are up year-to-date in 2025. Though they have fallen substantially, they could fall more as the market deteriorates, especially the leader, which is headquartered there and is the leader by far in the state.

Exclusive article by Alan Brochstein, CFA

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as founder of online community 420 Investor, the first and still largest due diligence platform focused on the publicly-traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. At New Cannabis Ventures, he is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before shifting his focus to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst following over two decades in research and portfolio management. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 at Seeking Alpha, where he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a frequent source to the media, including the NY Times, the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan: Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Email