On the Dash:

• F-150 inventory is down 23.6% since October, according to data from Cars.com.
• Multiple fires at aluminum supplier Novelis are blamed for the shortage.
• Dealers can expect tighter inventory through the middle of the year.

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The best-selling pickup truck in America, currently, faces a supply crunch. According to Cars.com, Ford F-150 inventory has fallen 23.6% since October, following a series of fires at the automaker’s primary aluminum supplier.

Dealers are sitting on an average of just 22 F-150s per lot, with the most popular trim, the XLT, accounting for roughly eight of those units. Thin stock is pushing average transaction prices up 2.7% since October to $62,614, leaving dealers with less room to negotiate and buyers with fewer choices.

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The trouble traces back to Sept. 16, 2025, when a fire broke out at the Novelis aluminum plant in Oswego, N.Y. The blaze destroyed the facility’s hot mill, the area where aluminum sheet for vehicle bodies is produced. Novelis supplies roughly 40% of the sheet aluminum used by U.S. automakers.

A second fire struck the same plant on Nov. 20, 2025. A third fire followed in early December.

Ford is Novelis’ largest customer, and the F-150’s body relies heavily on the lightweight aluminum sheet produced at the Oswego plant.

Ford spent an estimated $1.5 billion to $2 billion sourcing alternative aluminum from overseas suppliers to keep F-Series production moving during the outage, according to the company’s first-quarter 2026 earnings call. Ford also announced plans to build more than 50,000 additional F-Series units to recover volume lost during the disruption.

Dealers should expect tight F-150 inventory to persist through at least the middle of the year. Cars.com data show more than 168,000 used F-Series pickups listed for sale nationally, with just over 108,000 of those being F-150s.

Ford expects the Novelis facility to return to full capacity in the second half of 2026, which should ease the supply pressure. Until then, dealers who manage their inventory carefully, lean into the used market, and stay on top of demand will be best positioned to protect both volume and gross.