GfK’s long-running consumer confidence index increased by three points to -20 in May.

All measures were up in comparison to last month’s announcement:

Personal Financial Situation

• The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year is up three points at -7; this is three points better than May 2024.

• The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is up five points to +2; this is five points worse than this time last year.

General Economic Situation

• The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last 12 months is up one point to -46; this is seven points worse than in May 2024.

• Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months have gone up by four points to -33; this is 16 points worse than May 2024.

Major Purchase Index

• The Major Purchase Index is up three points at -16; this is 10 points better than this month last year.

Savings Index

• The Savings Index has dropped two points to +28 in May; this is one point better than this time last year.

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, an NIQ Company, said:

President Donald Trump has said he is “recommending” 50% tariffs on imported goods from the European Union.

This is up from the blanket 10% tariff goods being brought into America, as “discussions with them are going nowhere”, he said in a post on social media on Friday.

He said:

President Donald Trump threatened Apple with a 25% tariff unless it manufactures its iPhones in the US.

Posting on his Truth Social website, Trump said:

Apple shares are down more than 3% in pre-market trading on the back of the news.

Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, said “all the optimism over trade deals [has been] wiped out in minutes – seconds, even”, explaining:

The pound has hit $1.35 against the US dollar for the first time since February 2022.

It comes amid dollar weakens against a basket of currencies, dragged down by concerns that investors are losing faith in US government debt.

George Vessey, lead FX and macro strategist at Convera, says there are several positive factors supporting sterling.

Oil prices fell on Friday morning, putting them on track for a weekly loss, as investors eyed the prospect of an increase in supply and US-Iran nuclear deal talks, which are reportedly set to resume on Friday.

Brent crude futures (BZ=F) were down 0.5% to $64.11 a barrel, at the time of writing, while West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) declined 0.6% at $60.85 a barrel.

The fall in oil prices came after Bloomberg reported on Thursday that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies – known as OPEC+ – were discussing making a third consecutive increase in output, with a decision set to be made at the group’s meeting on 1 June.

“Traders are bracing for a potential supply wave from OPEC+ producing nations and although a final agreement has yet to be reached, the group is said to be mulling over another 411,000 barrel per day increase in output for July,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown.

A spokesperson for OPEC had not responded to Yahoo Finance UK‘s request for comment at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran are set to resume talks in Rome on Friday, according to a number of reports, to discuss the future of Tehran’s nuclear programme. Washington is aiming to limit Tehran’s nuclear programme, with US president Donald Trump having revived sanctions on Iran to restrict its crude oil exports.

An agreement between the two countries could could pave the way for more barrels being released. The prospect of an increase in supply into the oil market comes amid lingering concerns about demand. Trump’s trade war has prompted fears of a global economic slowdown, with concerns that this could weigh on demand for fuel.

The Telegraph is to be sold to a transatlantic consortium led by RedBird Capital Partners under a preliminary deal, it has been revealed.

Gerry Cardinale, founder of the US private equity firm, has signed an agreement in principle to acquire control of the newspaper for £500m from RedBird IMI, an investment vehicle majority backed by the United Arab Emirates.

It comes as RedBird IMI was blocked by the government from taking full ownership last year following a parliamentary outcry over press freedom.

Now, RedBird Capital, which provided a quarter of RedBird IMI’s funding, is moving to take direct control of the publication and is expected to be joined in the ownership group by British media investors. They have an ambitious plan to accelerate The Telegraph’s growth at home and abroad.

No final agreements are in place, however.

Shares in International Paper (IP) fell ahead of the US opening bell amid reports that hundreds of UK packaging jobs are under threat following its proposed restructuring of DS Smith operations, just months after the US firm acquired the British packaging group in a £5.8bn deal.

International Paper (IP) said on Friday it plans to close five packaging sites across the UK, relocate a sixth, and implement a “small headcount reduction” at two additional locations. The company said the proposals, which are currently under consultation with unions and employees, aim to “improve efficiencies” and better respond to customer needs amid what it described as “tough trading conditions for the industry.”

The restructuring could affect approximately 300 roles and is expected to be completed by the end of the year.

The move marks one of the first major changes under International Paper’s (IP) ownership of DS Smith, which it acquired in January in a deal aimed at expanding its European footprint and consolidating its position in sustainable packaging.

Responding to the announcement today that the Ofgem price cap will be reduced by £129 in July from £1,849 to £1,720.

Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said:

A number of FTSE 350 (^FTLC) stocks are trading on steep discounts, despite having outperformed the UK market over five years, according to an analysis by trading and investment platform IG.

The list of companies ranges from household names to industrial firms, that are trading on a significantly lower price-to-earnings (p/e) ratio, compared to their five-year average.

A p/e ratio measures a company’s current share price against its earnings per share and is used by investors to help determine how attractive its stock is, as a lower p/e ratio can indicate that a company is undervalued.

“With such a heavy focus on US tech and the hugely volatile global macro environment, UK investors may have missed some of the quiet compounders closer to home, something recently noted by BlackRock’s Larry Fink,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG.

“These UK names aren’t cheap because they’ve struggled – they’re cheap despite delivering,” he said. “That’s what makes this list particularly interesting for value-minded investors.”

This comes despite the fact that the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) hit a fresh all-time high in March and is currently trading near record levels. The FTSE 100 is up 6.9% year-to-date and the FTSE 350 – which covers the UK’s large and mid-cap stocks – is up 6.1% so far this year. US markets, meanwhile, have experienced more volatility as US president Donald Trump pushed ahead with his tariff agenda. Choppy trading has left the S&P 500 (^GSPC) 0.7% in the red year-to-date.

“For years, UK stocks have been ignored by global investors, but that view is starting to change,” said Beauchamp. “A cooling inflation picture, renewed interest in income-generating assets, and the prospect of several rate cuts this year are creating a very different environment. If global capital starts to rotate back into value – the UK is well placed to benefit.”

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Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.4% in the three months to March, twice as fast as the first estimate of 0.2% growth. It was the fastest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2022.

Manufacturing output and exports grew faster in March than initially forecast, as companies scrambled to beat Trump’s announcement of new tariffs in April.

Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, said Trump is making “the German economy great again, for now”, adding:

Charities have warned that many households will struggle to pay their energy bills, even once the price cap is lowered this summer.

Matthew Cole, chief executive of Fuel Bank Foundation, said:

ONS senior statistician Hannah Finselbach said:

Kris Hamer, director of insight at the British Retail Consortium, said:

Sales rose for UK retailers last month as warmer weather helped drive stronger demand for food and drink, according to official figures.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said overall retail sales volumes increased by 1.2% in April.

This compared with a 0.1% rise in March, which was revised down from a previous estimate of 0.4% for the month.

April’s retail sales growth surpassed expectations, with analysts having predicted a 0.4% increase.

The ONS said the latest increase means growth over the past three months has been the “largest in nearly four years” despite concerns over pressure on consumer budgets.

It comes as official data continues to show that wages – which rose 5.6% in the three months to March – are outpacing inflation, the increase in goods and services.

In April, shoppers spent more on food and drink, with retailers linking the increase to warmer weather and the Easter holiday.

Food stores reported a 3.9% rise in sales volumes – the strongest performance since January – with supermarkets, butchers, bakers and alcohol stores all trading well.

Elsewhere, department stores and household goods retailers also said they benefited from better weather, recording growth of 2.8% and 2.1% respectively.

However, clothing and shoe stores saw recent growth falter in April, reporting a 1.8% decline.

Overnight in Asia, the mood was mixed despite the recovery in US Treasuries. The Nikkei (^N225) rose 0.5% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) was flat Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was 1% down by the end of the session

The other main news was the latest CPI print from Japan which showed headline CPI remaining at 3.6% in April compared with 3.5% expected. Moreover, the core measure of inflation, excluding fresh food, was up to 3.5% versus the forecasted 3.4%, which was its fastest level since January 2023.

The Japanese yen strengthened 0.42% against the US dollar this morning, although much of that has been driven by dollar weakness, with the dollar index down 0.30% overnight.

Across the pond on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.4%, to 42,037.60, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.5% to 5,873.50, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.9% to 19,049.21.

In the bond market, the yield on benchmark 10-year US Treasury notes fell to 4.540% from 4.588% a day earlier.

Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what’s moving markets and happening across the global economy.

During the day ahead we have data releases including UK retail sales for April, French consumer confidence for May, and US new home sales for April. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Musalem, Schmid and Cook, and the ECB’s Lane.

Here’s a quick snapshot of today’s agenda:

• 7am: Trending tickers: AJ Bell, Games Workshop

• 7am: Ofgem to announce latest energy price cap

• 7am: Retail sales report for Great Britain in April

• 9.30am: Latest estimate for how many UK young people are not in education, employment or training

• 3pm: US new home sales data