Futures slip as investors focus on tariff risks

April 1, 2025

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A traders works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City · Reuters

By Sruthi Shankar, Pranav Kashyap

(Reuters) -U.S. stock index futures dipped on Tuesday, signaling a cautious start to the new quarter, as investors braced for the impending storm of sweeping tariff announcements the Trump administration is set to make on Wednesday.

The specter of economic disruption from U.S. tariffs coupled with aggressive AI investments by tech firms left Wall Street reeling in the first quarter. The benchmark S&P 500 closed the quarter 4.6% lower, marking its most dismal three-month stretch since July 2022.

President Donald Trump is poised to unveil “reciprocal tariffs”, aligning U.S. duties with those of other nations on April 2. He said on Sunday the levies will include all countries but specific details were scant.

White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on most imports to the United States, the Washington Post reported.

The formal announcement is slated for 3 pm ET on Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Monday.

Manufacturing activity surveys for March and the JOLTS job openings report later today could provide critical insights into the ripple effects from the tariffs on the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve’s trajectory on monetary policy.

“The suspense and uncertainty surrounding tomorrow is high. The focus will shift to the JOLTS job openings and ISM manufacturing but the data will need to underwhelm vs consensus to tempt investors to react,” said Kenneth Broux, strategist at Societe Generale.

“An upside surprise is most likely to be ignored as investors try to take and hold on to defensive positions before tomorrow’s announcement.”

By 6:45 a.m. ET, U.S. S&P 500 E-minis were down 18.5 points, or 0.33%, Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 47 points, or 0.24%, and Dow E-minis were down 181 points, or 0.43%.

Investors have sought refuge in U.S. government bonds and gold while dumping domestic equities, especially the high-flying tech stocks, amid fears tariffs could stifle economic expansion and ignite inflationary pressures.

Trump has already implemented levies on imported aluminum and steel, along with increased tariffs on goods from China. Higher duties on cars will take effect on Thursday.

New York Fed President John Williams acknowledged on Monday there are risks inflation could once again heat up, while Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said he is nervous the Trump administration’s tariffs will push up prices and hurt the job market.

Goldman Sachs on Monday raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35% from 20% and said it expects more U.S. interest rate cuts this year.

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