In the summer of 2025, the federally owned NOW GmbH hosted the third iteration of its ‘Cleanroom Talks for Passenger Cars.’ The discussion format serves as a platform for the German Ministry of Transport to gather comprehensive data from manufacturers. The aim is to assess current market and technology trends in the battery-electric passenger car sector.

Participating companies represent a substantial share of the market: collectively, they account for ‘more than 80 per cent of passenger car sales and over 90 per cent of electric passenger car sales in Germany,’ according to the NOW GmbH.

Using the sales and technology forecasts provided by car manufacturers, NOW GmbH has developed an overall projection for the German passenger car market. The findings are now ready for publicatio.

“Based on the sales forecasts from manufacturers as of summer 2025, NOW GmbH has determined the potential development of the total stock of electrified passenger cars in Germany for the years 2026 to 2030. This results in an expected passenger car stock of around 8 million battery-electric vehicles and 2.4 million plug-in hybrids by 2030,” the organisation states.

For context: Germany surpassed the two-million BEV threshold around the turn of the year 2025/26. Growth has accelerated consistently. While only 34,022 vehicles were registered in 2017, the number had increased nearly 60-fold to over two million vehicles by 2026, the Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) reported at the time. A significant surge in growth has been observed since 2020, with the one-million mark first surpassed in 2023.

NOW GmbH now predicts a further rapid increase in BEV sales. Within just four years, another 6 million BEVs are expected to be added. For passenger car sales in 2030, the organisation forecasts around 1.8 million new electric cars and approximately 200,000 new plug-in hybrids. According to NOW GmbH’s estimates, this would correspond to an electric share of around 70 per cent of total sales.

This projection significantly exceeds previous assumptions. “Between 2026 and 2030, BEV sales in Germany are expected to grow by an average of 24 per cent annually – a higher rate than previously assumed,” NOW GmbH notes in its forecast.

Dagmar Fehler, spokesperson and CEO of NOW GmbH, stated: “The cleanroom format is unique in its approach: through a systematic and competition-law-compliant process, we collect and analyse the sales plans of the automotive industry. It enables well-founded statements and recommendations on key issues for the mobility of the future. With the results of the Cleanroom Talks, NOW provides guidance – for policymakers, industry, science, and interested citizens. For the coming years, we see a clear trend: a growing range of models, greater ranges, and faster charging are making electric cars increasingly attractive.”

NOW GmbH outlines how these framework conditions are expected to improve in concrete terms:

• The model range is expanding: The number of BEV models is expected to increase by 40% between 2026 and 2030, while the PHEV offering is set to decline slightly.
• Average usable battery capacities are increasing by around 5%, and by up to 30% in higher vehicle segments.
• Ranges are increasing across all vehicle segments, with particularly strong progress in higher segments.
• BEVs in mid-range and premium segments are already equipped for high-power charging (HPC, ≥ 150 kW) today. Over the next five to ten years, HPC capability is also expected to become increasingly common in smaller models.
• Bidirectional charging (V2X) will be significantly more widespread in BEV new registrations by 2030 – a key component for the energy transition.

Additionally, NOW GmbH emphasises that the results of the Cleanroom Talks demonstrate a clear strategic commitment by the automotive industry to electric mobility: “BEV production is being strategically prioritised in all relevant markets. After 2030, annual BEV new registrations of over two million passenger cars are expected – establishing the market as a true mass market,” the government-owned company stated.

The discussions, held from July to September 2025, were conducted in compliance with competition law and included personal meetings as well as a structured data request on sales forecasts for the period 2026 to 2030. They primarily serve the National Centre for Charging Infrastructure as a basis for its demand forecasts – particularly regarding the required charging infrastructure. The German Ministry of Transport first initiated this exchange with the industry in 2020. A second round took place in 2022/23, followed now by the third round.

nationale-leitstelle.de, nationale-leitstelle.de (PDF; both in German)