The global power system will be dominated by two mega-trends over the rest of the decade: solar’s share in the electricity mix rising rapidly as it continues its exponential growth, and robust electricity demand growth as electricity replaces other forms of energy powering the global economy.

Signs of this are already here: solar has been the largest source of new electricity for the last three years, and new drivers of demand such as EVs, heat pumps and data centres are contributing 0.7% to annual demand growth, more than twice as much as they did five years ago.

As we reach a tipping point where the increasingly rapid rise of clean generation outpaces structural growth in demand, changes to fossil fuel generation over the short-term will be dominated by fluctuations in weather, as seen in 2024 with the impacts of heatwaves. Despite this, it remains clear that clean generation growth and the uptake of flexible technologies such as battery storage will reduce reliance on fossil fuel power in the coming years, even in a world of faster demand growth.

We estimate that even if electricity demand grows at 4.1% per year until 2030, which exceeds current expectations, clean generation growth will be fast enough to keep pace. Dynamics in the world’s largest emerging economies will play a crucial role. China and India are both moving towards a future of demand growth powered by clean electricity, helping to tip the balance towards a decline in fossil generation at a global level.