00:00 Speaker A

Bob, let’s talk about gold’s performance here this year because it has far surpassed the S&P 500. Now Goldman Sachs predicting that it could hit 4900 by the end of 2026. So what’s your outlook for the new year?

00:23 Speaker B

Well, I’ve been long gold for a couple years, Brooke, as you know, I talked about gold in 2023 on this show, as a matter of fact, as being one of the big holdings going into 24 and I’ve seen no reason to get out of that position at this point. I do think we’ll get a substan substantial pullback, but I think the central bank buying is going to resume and accelerate into 2026. I think this is sort of a de-debt, de-US debt, de-dollarization, uh sort of a narrative that has not changed globally.

01:04 Speaker B

So I see that continuing and that of course was uh some of the geopolitics that went on over the last couple of years are a big part of it. So I don’t really see that ending, but I don’t see the type of parabolic move we’ve seen in gold continuing. I think those are who are long gold need to stay long gold, but I don’t really think it’s time to initiate new positions in the precious medals.

01:31 Speaker A

So Bob, it seems like you’re kind of contradicting what exactly we’re hearing from Goldman Sachs. We’re hearing from global dating data this morning, they’re predicting between 4900 to 5100 by the end of next year. Walk us through that hesitation that it seems like you have. and it also it seems like investors shouldn’t be jumping in right now. Is that what you’re saying there?

01:57 Speaker B

Well, I think that’s sort of given where gold is, I don’t think that’s a very big call and that’s sort of what I mean. I mean, when you see, you mentioned the kind of rally we’ve had this year. I just don’t see that continuing. So you get to a certain point with commodities especially, where you’ve seen such a run that the reward to risk on getting into new longs is not necessarily that intelligent for me from a trading perspective, or from an active investing perspective.

02:30 Speaker B

The kind of thing that I do when I get these big runs is I rebalance, take some of those gains and put them in more constructive areas like some of the some of the AI sectors, for example, which have also had big runs, but have sort of leveled off over the the later part of 2025. So it’s not that I’m disagreeing with Goldman Sachs. I just don’t think it’s a very bold call and it doesn’t call for new gold positions in my view.

03:00 Speaker A

Now, some of the other uh areas of this gold trade that have seen such momentum this year include some gold miners. We have Barrick, Freeport, Newmont, seeing tremendous returns. We also have some ETFs also seeing tremendous returns as well with VanEck Gold Miners ETF up more than 160%. What do you make of investors trying to play this gold trade maybe a little bit differently and is that the right move in the new year?

03:37 Speaker B

So that might be a more conservative way to play 2026. and I’m glad you brought that up because some of the gains that I made in the commodity itself, I moved into the Van act fund specifically because it’s going to have a little bit more complex of a move than gold itself. One of the things I’ve talked about for years with precious metals and also with energies like crude oil is that if you have a thesis in the commodity, you should be invested in the commodity, not in the uh oil drillers or in the large oil uh companies like Valero or Exxon, if you have a thesis in oil, you should be in oil.

04:15 Speaker B

I feel the same thing for gold, except when you end up in a situation where the price of gold might stabilize. The miners are still going to be taking advantage with larger margins of this higher gold price even if gold stabilizes and their P&Ls and their profits and their earnings report will reflect that. So some of the places you could establish new longs, if you believe in Goldman’s call or anyone else’s call for that matter because there’s not a lot of calls for gold to drop off the face of the earth, you’re looking at the miners as being a better play in my view.