Has the Recent Pullback Made Ameresco a Bargain After Big Renewable Energy Project Wins?

November 15, 2025

  • Wondering if Ameresco stock is truly offering value right now? You are not alone, and we are about to dig into what makes its valuation story unique.

  • After a strong run so far this year, with YTD returns at 27.9% and a 1-year gain of 26.2%, the stock has recently pulled back, dropping 19.5% in the last month and 8.8% in just the past week.

  • Recent headlines spotlight Ameresco’s role in large-scale renewable energy projects and partnerships with municipalities. This has put the stock back on investor radars and driven increased volatility. News around new contract wins and growing demand for clean energy solutions is helping shape both optimism and caution in the current share price.

  • According to our simple valuation checklist, Ameresco scores 4 out of 6 for being undervalued. As we explore classic metrics and forward-looking models, you will see there is more than one way to value a company. There is arguably an even better approach that we will reveal by the end of this article.

Find out why Ameresco’s 26.2% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s true value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s dollars. This approach helps investors determine whether a stock is trading below or above its fair value, based on fundamental expectations rather than market sentiment.

Ameresco’s most recent reported Free Cash Flow (FCF) sits at approximately -$572 Million. Looking forward, analysts expect FCF to swing positive, with projections reaching $45.4 Million in 2026 and $158.2 Million in 2027. Beyond those five years, Simply Wall St extrapolates continued strong growth, with FCF forecast to exceed $1.2 Billion by 2035. All projections are stated in US dollars.

Using these projections and discounting them back to the present, the intrinsic value produced by the DCF model for Ameresco stands at $132.37 per share. This value implies the stock is trading at a sizeable 75.7% discount to its fair value, making it appear significantly undervalued at current prices.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Ameresco is undervalued by 75.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 885 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

AMRC Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025
AMRC Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Ameresco.

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a popular way to value profitable companies like Ameresco because it quickly shows what investors are willing to pay per dollar of earnings. It is especially useful for companies already generating consistent profits, making it a go-to metric for comparing valuations across similar businesses.

Interpreting whether a stock’s PE ratio is high or low depends on its earnings growth outlook and risks. Generally, rapidly expanding companies or those with stable, defensible earnings can justify higher PE ratios, while slower growth or riskier businesses tend to deserve lower multiples.

Ameresco’s current PE ratio stands at 27x. For context, the Construction industry’s average PE is 33.09x, and the average for Ameresco’s listed peers is around 24.46x. This places Ameresco at a discount to the broader industry but at a premium to its immediate peers.

Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” adds another layer. It calculates the appropriate PE for Ameresco by considering not just past earnings and industry averages, but also its growth prospects, profit margins, market cap, and potential risks. This makes it more tailored and insightful than a simple peer comparison. For Ameresco, the Fair Ratio is 49.31x, which is significantly higher than its current PE ratio.

Given this large gap, the Fair Ratio suggests that Ameresco is undervalued based on its earnings potential and risk profile.

Result: UNDERVALUED

NYSE:AMRC PE Ratio as at Nov 2025
NYSE:AMRC PE Ratio as at Nov 2025

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1411 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your personal investment story; you combine what you believe about a company’s future (growth rates, margins, risks or opportunities) with financial forecasts to arrive at your own fair value.

Narratives bridge the gap between numbers and real-world dynamics by letting you tie Ameresco’s unique business story directly to your assumptions, then compare your fair value against the current share price. Available right within Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are easy to use, interactive, and updated automatically as new information such as earnings reports or news comes in, helping millions of investors keep their analysis current.

This means you are not just relying on generic models, but can quickly see if your view is bullish or cautious. For example, some investors believe Ameresco’s fast-growing federal contracts will justify a price above $41 per share, while others see risks and set their fair value as low as $19. With Narratives, you are empowered to act confidently on your own conviction, using up-to-date facts, your story, and a clear fair value to decide whether to buy, hold, or sell.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Ameresco? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:AMRC Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025
NYSE:AMRC Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include AMRC.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Terms and Privacy Policy


 

Search

RECENT PRESS RELEASES