Apple’s (AAPL) calendar is turning more favorable at a pivotal moment for the stock.

Historically, Apple stock tends to get its groove back in May. But before that seasonal tailwind kicks in, investors first have to get through a messy near-term setup: a dicey chart, a CEO transition, and earnings next week.

Against that backdrop, Apple’s calendar offers a useful roadmap for investors trying to time the stock. Using monthly return data since 2003, May, July, August, and October stand out as some of Apple’s strongest months, with median returns above 6%. September is the clear weak spot and the only negative month in the set.

The longer-run data tells a similar story.

Using Apple’s full stock market history back to 1981, a hypothetical strategy of owning the stock during only one calendar month each year still shows October as the standout, with August also well ahead of the pack.

September, meanwhile, is the clear laggard, with that month-only strategy losing money over time.

That September softness also lines up with a familiar Apple pattern. iPhone launch month has often been more “sell the news” than “buy the headline.” But September was a weak month for Apple long before the iPhone existed, suggesting the tendency runs deeper than product-event noise alone.

The practical takeaway is simple.

For 21st-century Apple, the calendar has tended to improve starting in May, strengthen again in mid-to-late summer, then run into its biggest historical trouble spot in September. October has often marked another turn higher.

That doesn’t mean Apple has to follow the script this year. Fresh catalysts — especially a new CEO — can easily override seasonal tendencies.

The calendar is starting to lean Apple’s way. Now the stock has to do its part.

Jared Blikre is the global markets and data editor for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X at @SPYJared or email him at jaredblikre@yahooinc.com.

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