Illustration: Jeremy Scott Diamond. Photo: Yevgen Romanenko

By Sam Potter January 1, 2026

Astronomical expenditure. Uncertain rates of return. Uneven pace of adoption.

By now every firm on Wall Street is well aware of the risks surrounding the artificial intelligence boom. But when it comes to the year ahead, few advocate walking away from what they describe as a “revolutionary” technology. Across the investment outlooks from more than 60 institutions compiled here by Bloomberg News, the optimism is almost universal.

Fidelity International calls AI “the defining theme for equity markets” in 2026. The BlackRock Investment Institute says the tech will likely “keep trumping tariffs and traditional macro drivers.” NatWest spies “a powerful engine of economic expansion.” Even the most bearish firm — BCA Research, which warns of a potential US recession — stays neutral on stocks for now on the tailwind of AI’s huge capital expenditure.

“The biggest risk, to us, is not having exposure to this transformational technology,” JPMorgan Wealth Management says.

See the all the calls for 2026 ↓

When it comes to risks to the outlook, the worries are conventional. Geopolitics. Trade barriers. A weakening US labor market (BCA’s chief concern). But with the AI boom holding up, the Federal Reserve seen loosening monetary policy, and further support arriving in the shape of President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” and Germany’s fiscal stimulus, the general consensus is for the global expansion to rumble on.

“Regional policy shifts suggest a more supportive macro backdrop for global growth in 2026,” writes State Street. “With an inflation trajectory trending lower, US policy rates likely to fall as the Fed takes stock of a softening labor market, and policy levers turning stimulative, we have a supportive environment for risk assets.”

Still, optimism over returns has a limit. Valuations of key assets remain elevated, with many equities looking pricey and credit spreads extremely tight. US tariffs remain in place, acting as a brake on global growth. Inflation is still not vanquished.

“There is a disconnect between the positive short-term environment for risk assets, and a broader structural instability,” says Fidelity. “Global fragmentation, a depreciating dollar, US Federal Reserve independence, and AI capex trends are themes to watch in 2026 and beyond.”

Bloomberg’s annual compilation of outlooks for the year ahead features more than 700 calls, presented here for easy analysis and comparison. They talk of an environment where the AI spend and government policies are adding fuel to growth at an unusual stage of the business cycle. They argue inflation won’t quite be tamed as a result, and that central banks may not have the room to maneuver that markets currently expect. Private assets will continue their ascent. The dollar will continue its decline.

The calls have been divided into sections covering the key themes and assets. Each section has a short summary, and the calls will load in approximate order based on the level of conviction displayed (highest-conviction calls appearing first). The filtering tool will allow you to view the calls from multiple specific institutions at once.

This is what the finance world’s best and brightest see in the year ahead.