If you ask a longtime Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) holder how he or she feels about the coin’s performance during the summer, the person might talk about that one time in 2021 when the coin was on fire — and then wince when starting to think about how it performs pretty much every other year. The warm months have a habit of handing the second largest cryptocurrency a slow, grinding decline that saps holders’ patience.

This year, the slow season opens with Ethereum already in bad shape. The coin is trading near $1,675.66, below its August 2025 peak, as the crypto market is in a state of extreme pessimism and fear.

Will AI create the world’s first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an “Indispensable Monopoly” providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »

So, are holders in for more pain, or will things be different this time?

It’ll feel pretty bad if history repeats itself again

The seasonal pattern here is not very subtle.

Since Ethereum’s launch, its median return is -8.7% in June, -4.4% in July, -4.5% in August, and -9.3% in September. Thus, the reasonable thing to expect is more pain (or more opportunity to buy the dip) ahead. But when July or August trends upward instead of down, it tends to be quite explosive; in 2020, 2022, and 2025, the coin climbed by at least 49%.

Frustratingly for investors, there isn’t really a coherent mechanism driving this seasonality, which makes it hard to plan around it with precision.

As Ethereum is a global asset traded 24/7, it doesn’t slow down just because it’s beach season in the northern hemisphere; it’s somewhat at the mercy of capital flowing through global markets at any given time. So, working out the best time to buy crypto depends far more on your investment time horizon than on the course of the next few months.

How investors should proceed

For investors with existing conviction in Ethereum’s long-term thesis, the summer’s typical conditions can be a decent window to keep accumulating. Dollar-cost averaging (DCAing), or buying fixed dollar amounts of the coin on a set schedule regardless of price, can turn a traditionally weak season into an opportunity.

Still, remember that seasonality isn’t a very reliable signal compared to far larger forces like global liquidity and regulation. If investors’ conviction in the network’s potential is generally on the lower side, as it is right now, there’s little reason to expect this summer to buck the trend.