Market calendars and notions of seasonality have a way of habitually humbling investors, especially in crypto, who expect every other month to either be a fireworks show or a funeral. For Ethereum (ETH -0.23%), there are many who, even knowing that bit of wisdom, are still camped out in lawn chairs and eager for the extravaganza of light and sound that they think is about to come next.

But what’s the reasonable thing to expect Ethereum to do next month? Let’s take a look at what history says, and put it into the proper context for this asset.

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October tends to be an appetizer

Historically, Ethereum’s seasonality profile features a soft September and a stronger November, with October sitting near the middle; generally, the fourth quarter of the year delivers very strong returns. In more concrete terms, since the chain’s launch, the median return in October has been 0.5%, with the average being 4.7%.

So if you were one of the ones hoping for that fireworks show to start soon, you should probably adjust your expectations, as you’re more likely to see a few test flares than impressive explosions. On the other hand, if you are slowly building a position in this coin with discipline via dollar-cost averaging (DCAing), a quieter month is likely to be your friend.

Separately, it’s important to recognize that a modest October median return does not mean that nothing ever happens; it means the distribution of outcomes clusters around small gains. In other words, the base case is range-bound, but tail events can still occur. So don’t take this as an opportunity to act rashly and sell your house to buy this coin because you think now’s a safe time for it.

Nevertheless, there is also reason to believe that this October is more likely to be a calm one than in the past.

U.S. spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) began trading in July 2024, improving access and broadening the coin’s investor base. The net result could be that the asset’s volatility during this month is even lower than usual, as ETF holders might be less likely to sell. It’s also worth nothing that capital inflows from the ETFs will continue to swing depending on macro headlines (which have been unpredictable lately) and investors’ average risk appetite, so treat them as noise rather than a timing tool.

The setup into November is better than ever

Although the base case here is that October will be without major price gains or losses, two things might tilt a historically quiet month to the upside. The chain now has better tech, and far bigger users than it did in the past.

On the tech side, Ethereum’s latest upgrade, Pectra, has been well-received by the market. The chain is now cheaper and better equipped to handle large transaction volume than ever. That matters because it makes the chain more appealing when combined with the next factor.

Traditional financial institutions and asset managers are moving their real‑world assets (RWAs) on‑chain via tokenization. Tokenization simply means recording and managing ownership of common assets like money market funds and U.S. Treasuries on a blockchain for speed and efficiency. Major names like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Fidelity are either experimenting with or committing to using Ethereum to track their tokenized assets, and they’re going to funnel a lot of transaction volume to the chain in the near term as a result.

Upgraded tech, better investor access, and big new users are a powerful combination that is sure to drive demand for Ethereum, as all transactions on the network require paying a gas (user) fee with Ethereum’s native crypto, Ether. The existence of spot ETFs removes a logistical barrier for financial institutions and retirement accounts to contribute their capital, and the presence of tokenized cash equivalents and Treasuries on‑chain creates reasons for the biggest fish (and their capital) to stay. The structural picture for this coin gaining in value is thus considerably better than it was a year ago.

Assuming macro conditions do not deteriorate sharply, the odds favor a constructive setup into November, where historically returns have been much higher. Given all of the above, the message for October is to hang tight and keep accumulating Ethereum — and, once again, there’s no need to take any impulsive actions here, just sit tight.