Shoe buying and the start of the holiday shopping season are just around the corner.

That’s because Amazon‘s October Prime Day sales are slated to start on Tuesday for two days. The online marketplace isn’t the only one jump-starting the holiday shopping season with early specials. Target Corp. said on Sept. 22 that was giving its paid 360 members special perks, including early access to select discounts on apparel and shoes during Circle Week that started Sunday and running through Saturday. Included in its specials is a 20 percent discount on Converse shoes. The mass discounter is also including on shoes from Crocs and Hey Dude among the items slated for daily deals, with prices starting at 40 percent off or more.

Target’s discount competitor Walmart Inc. is also getting into the early holiday shopping war, with its week of Walmart Deals starting on Tuesday, although Walmart+ members get the benefit of a head start beginning Monday night at 7 p.m. ET. Included in Walmart’s fashion specials is a Madden Girl women’s Bells slide-on heeled mule at $25 off.

Adobe Analytics is predicting the pre-holiday discounts during the two-day Amazon event will entice some shopping to start their shopping early. Adobe is forecasting $8-9 billion will be spent on Oct. 7 and 8, representing 6.2 percent growth year-over-year. Discounts off listed prices are expected to peak at 17 percent. Adobe also expects Buy Now Pay Later to drive $723 million in online spend, up 8.1 percent year-over-year, as consumers find ways to gain greater flexibility in their budgets.

Initially, the overall holiday outlook wasn’t promising. PwC’s 2025 Holiday Outlook survey projected a 7 percent to 10 percent decline in year-over-year shoe purchases, but that was based on a study that was conducted in June when there was more uncertainty over reciprocal tariffs. Overall holiday spending is projected to fall by 5 percent from 2024 levels, representing the first notable drop since 2020.

And value this year has been a key theme for consumers. It was the key theme for this year’s back-to-school (bts) shopping season. An AlixPartners study in partnership with the Footwear Distributors & Retailers of America — polled in June, with data results disclosed in July — noted that tariffs and shoe prices had parents considering either trade-down options or buying fewer pairs. But those results could be outdated now because trade deals were still being negotiated at the time of the survey, and responses were reflecting expectations that shoe prices could spike by 10 percent to 25 percent.

More recently, Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast disclosed last month projected a sales increase of between 2.9 percent and 3.4 percent from 2024 levels to total between $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion during the November to January timeframe. That’s a smaller growth pace than the 4.2 percent rise in holiday sales last year.

Shoe brands have implemented incremental price increases. Nike has raised prices, but the athletic giant’s average increase is between $2 and $10, with no increases for items priced under $100. On Holding’s CEO and CFO Martin Hoffmann said in August that the brand selectively raised prices in the U.S. in July. He also said the increases had no impact on the firm’s second quarter profitability. And with a strong order book for the fall/winter season, the company raised its 2025 guidance.

So what does all this mean for shoe companies and retailers?

Back-to-school has become a bellwether for anyone wanting to read the tea leaves on holiday shopping. And this year’s bts selling season held up well. “August retail sales surprised to the upside, with 5.4 percent growth versus August 2024, excluding auto and gas. Modestly rising [inflation] acceleration has not yet deterred U.S. shoppers, echoing sentiments we heard in the recent second quarter reporting season about a reasonable summer selling period,” noted David Silverman, senior director at Fitch Ratings, a credit ratings firm. The credit analyst said August retail sales boded well for the remainder of the bts period, which typicall runs through the end of September. U.S. retail sales for September are due out in a few weeks.

BTIG’s consumer retail and lifestyle brands analyst Janine Stichter said Monday in a research note that there are indications of consumer resilience, noting that price increases “have yet to truly hit consumer demand.” She did note that prices could still rise more than initially thought, reflecting higher tariff rates than what many shoe brands had planned in their early projections. That would mean the impact of higher prices probably won’t be felt until later in the year and into spring ’26. That could bode well for early holiday shoppers buying now and taking advantage of sales promotions.

Similarly, a report last week from economists at Wells Fargo concluded that “consumer resilience remains intact,” noting that what stood out to them in the August retail sales report was “growth in discretionary purchases.”

“Continued discretionary spending tells us that, even as household wallets have shifted this year in an effort to mitigate tariff-induced uncertainty, consumers haven’t gone into hiding and are still spending,” they said, adding that while higher prices for necessities may be “crimping” shoppers’ ability to spend elsewhere, they’re “not halting” their spending.