How Climate Change Could Make Homes Disappear

April 8, 2025

In the next 15 years, the New York area could lose more than 80,000 homes to floods, worsening the housing shortage, according to a new report.

Good morning. It’s Tuesday. Today we’ll look at how one consequence of climate change, coastal flooding, could make New York’s housing shortage worse. We’ll also get details on testimony by Columbia University’s former interim president, who told a federal task force that she did not remember the specifics of Columbia’s report on antisemitism.

ImageA woman checks her mail at the foot of a staircase in front of a flooded street.
Researchers expect flooding and other extreme weather events to push thousands of people from their homes in the New York region over the next 15 years.Credit…Michael Kirby Smith for The New York Times

In a city surrounded by water, communities along the shore are vulnerable to coastal flooding brought on by climate change.

That is troubling for a city that also has a housing shortage, as New York does, because homes could be lost to rising water — 82,000 homes in the city and nearby suburbs over the next 15 years, according to a report from the Regional Plan Association, a New York-based urban research and policy group. The report also said that the New York region needed 362,000 homes today to relieve overcrowding and provide permanent housing for the shelter population. But that number will more than triple by 2040.

I asked my colleague Mihir Zaveri, who with Hilary Howard analyzed the report, to explain the findings.

What neighborhoods are at risk of flooding?

When it comes to coastal flooding and rising sea levels, the areas along the coast will, of course, be affected the most. Specifically, in New York City, we’re looking at areas like the Rockaways and South Ozone Park in Queens, Canarsie in Brooklyn and neighborhoods along the southeastern shore of Staten Island. The projected losses in areas on Long Island — like the towns of Hempstead, Babylon and Islip — make up nearly half of the overall toll.

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