As the
Donald Trump administration prepares to unveil its tariff strategy on what it
has dubbed “Liberation Day,” financial markets are bracing for impact, with
cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) caught in the crosshairs.

The policy,
set to be detailed later today (Wednesday) at 10 PM CET, is expected to include
reciprocal tariffs targeting 15 countries—among them China, Canada, and
Mexico—that have imposed duties on U.S. goods.

While Wall
Street frets over economic fallout, analysts are divided on what this means for
Bitcoin, the world’s largest digital asset, which has already seen its price
slide from almost $110,000 earlier this year to $84,327 as of this morning, up
1% in the last 24 hours.

How Trump’s Tarriffs Could
Shape Bitcoin’s Price Trajectory

The
cryptocurrency market has been a rollercoaster under President Donald Trump’s
second term. Investors initially anticipated a boon from his administration,
buoyed by promises of regulatory reform and a potential Bitcoin Strategic
Reserve.

Yet, the
reality has been starkly different. Bitcoin’s value has trended downward
through much of March, reflecting broader market unease tied to macroeconomic
factors, including the looming tariffs.

Other major
digital currencies have followed suit, with Ethereum (ETH) currently near November
2023 lows at $1,863 and XRP, testing key support level at $2.10 again.

Tariffs and Risk Appetite

The
introduction of tariffs—taxes levied on imported goods—has sparked concerns
about a global economic slowdown, prompting investors to retreat from assets
perceived as high-risk, including cryptocurrencies .

This shift
has deepened the correlation between crypto markets and traditional financial
instruments like stocks and bonds, which have also faced turbulence. Gold, by
contrast, has surged 18% year-to-date, cementing its status as a preferred
safe-haven asset amid the uncertainty.

“Macro-driven
correlations are increasingly shaping price action in major cryptos,” Aran
Hawker at CoinPanel commented for Finance Magnates. “The Nasdaq’s role
as a lead indicator in the current risk-off move offers a useful benchmark for
attributing parallel weakness across the digital assets market.”

The
tariffs, which include a proposed 25% levy on foreign-made cars announced last
week, are part of Trump’s broader trade agenda aimed at bolstering domestic
industries.

However,
they’ve raised fears of retaliatory measures from trading partners, potentially
disrupting global supply chains and fueling inflation. For Bitcoin, this has
translated into short-term selling pressure, as traders shy away from volatile
assets.

Trump to deliver ‘Liberation Day’ announcement from Rose Garden flanked by Cabinet members https://t.co/H7NiMroI7Z

— Fox News (@FoxNews)

April 2, 2025

A Silver Lining for
Bitcoin?

Despite the
immediate headwinds, some experts argue that Trump’s tariff policies could
ultimately bolster Bitcoin’s long-term appeal. Omid Malekan, an adjunct
professor at Columbia Business School, suggests that cryptocurrency might
emerge as a viable alternative to traditional safe havens like gold.

“Some
people argue that crypto is just a risk-on tech asset and would sell off due to
tariffs,” Malekan said, quoted by CoinDesk. “But Bitcoin has found footing in
some circles as ‘digital gold’ and the physical variety is soaring on the
tariff news. So which will it be?”

This
perspective hinges on the idea that tariffs could erode the U.S. dollar’s
dominance in global trade. As trading partners seek alternatives to
dollar-based transactions, non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin could gain
traction.

Zach Pandl,
Head of Research at Grayscale, shares this optimism. “Tariffs will weaken the
dominant role of the dollar and create space for competitors including Bitcoin,”
he said. “The first few months of the Trump Administration have raised my
conviction in the longer term for Bitcoin as a global monetary asset.”

Pandl
estimates that tariffs have already shaved 2% off U.S. economic growth this
year, a drag that has weighed on crypto markets. Yet, he sees a potential
turning point with today’s announcement.

Will Bitcoin Price Go Down?
Liquidity Withdrawals Signal Potential Price Volatility

A recent
surge in Bitcoin withdrawals from active trading addresses could set the stage
for significant price movements, according to a new analysis by blockchain
researcher Dr. Kirill Kretov. The study, which examines over 50 months of
Bitcoin transaction data, reveals a pattern of liquidity reduction reminiscent
of conditions preceding the 2020-2021 bull run.

Kretov’s
research, spanning from July 2020 to March 2025, identifies a notable wave of
large withdrawals beginning in late November 2024. This trend is particularly
pronounced among addresses transacting between 100 and 10,000 BTC, suggesting
involvement of institutional or high-net-worth participants.

“Since
late November, we’ve seen a substantial outflow of BTC from active addresses,
particularly those transacting over 100 BTC,” Kretov noted. “This
volume level strongly suggests institutional or high-net-worth
participation—not retail.”

A negative
net value in the analysis indicates more Bitcoin sent than received, pointing
to liquidity withdrawal.

“With
so much liquidity withdrawn from active entities, the path of least resistance
appears to be upward—mechanically speaking. In a thinner market, even
moderately large buy orders can have an outsized impact on price,” added
Kretov.

You may also like: Why Is Bitcoin Going Down? BTC Price Closes Its Worst Quarter in 7 Years

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Potential
$150K Move

While these
conditions could theoretically support a Bitcoin price of $150,000, Kretov
cautions that such moves in low-liquidity environments may lack stability.
“It’s crucial to recognize that a price reached in a low-liquidity
environment is not necessarily stable or structurally supported,” he
warned.

The
researcher advises a cautious approach, particularly regarding margin trading
and leverage. “Personally, rather than targeting specific price levels,
I’m focusing on trading volatility: extracting profits from price swings while
closely monitoring liquidity flows,” Kretov said.

How does
the situation look from the perspective of technical analysis? Based on my
review of the BTC/USDT chart, it’s clear that since the all-time high in
January, we’ve been moving uninterruptedly within a bearish regression channel.
Bitcoin briefly attempted to break out of this channel earlier this month, but
the effort failed. The psychological support level of $80,000 was tested and
broken, and the price is currently moving sideways.

Where do I
think the next resistance lies if Bitcoin manages to break out of the current
supply formation? The first resistance would be the local peak around $87,000,
which shouldn’t pose a significant challenge. A much more substantial
resistance is at $92,000, where the lows from December, January, and the first
half of February align.

Will Trump’s Tariffs Influence
Bitcoin?

For now,
the crypto community is watching closely as Trump’s tariff policy takes shape.
While the immediate outlook remains cloudy, the possibility of Bitcoin emerging
as a hedge against a fragmenting global financial system offers a glimmer of
hope.

Taxing international capital flows is an excellent way to accelerate Bitcoin adoption

How a Radical Proposal in Trump’s World Could Hurt Stablecoins, but Boost Bitcoin https://t.co/XIK9EYPyYI

— Zach Pandl (@LowBeta_)

April 1, 2025

As the
clock ticks toward this afternoon’s announcement, investors and analysts alike
are preparing for volatility—but also for the chance that Bitcoin could find
its footing in a shifting economic landscape.

For
more cryptocurrency analyses and forecasts for the biggest tokens, visit
FinanceMagnates.com.