• Recent commentary highlights that Avantor’s core business has underperformed over the past two years, with organic revenue disappointing and sales expected to fall further as it contends with a difficult demand backdrop.

• At the same time, Avantor’s role as a key “picks-and-shovels” supplier to labs behind vaccines, biotech, AI chips, and advanced medicines underlines its structural importance to health and science infrastructure even as questions grow around the effectiveness of recent capital investment.

• Next, we’ll examine how concerns about eroding returns on capital may influence Avantor’s broader investment narrative.

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To own Avantor today, you have to believe its role as a core “picks-and-shovels” supplier to vaccines, biotech, AI chips and advanced medicines ultimately outweighs the drag from a weak core business. The recent news about underwhelming organic revenue, expected sales declines and eroding returns on capital sharpens the near term focus on execution: can the new leadership team improve returns on recent investments without leaning too heavily on acquisitions to prop up growth? With the share price already hit hard over the past year and the stock trading below several fair value estimates, the key short term catalysts now look more about stabilizing demand trends, rebuilding profitability and proving capital discipline than about aggressive expansion. The biggest risk is that ongoing investment continues to destroy value rather than compound it.

Despite retreating, Avantor’s shares might still be trading 6% above their fair value. Discover the potential downside here.

Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates span roughly US$12.57 to US$46.76, showing how far apart individual views can be. Set that alongside concerns about falling organic revenue and pressured returns on capital, and you can see why opinions on Avantor’s longer term performance are so split. Readers can weigh these contrasting perspectives before deciding how much faith to place in a turnaround.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Avantor – why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

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