• In the past week, Morgan Stanley downgraded Harley-Davidson, expressing concerns over increased competition and challenges facing the broader motorcycle industry outlook.

• This shift in analyst sentiment reflects mounting worries about margin pressures and Harley-Davidson’s ability to sustain pricing power amid an evolving consumer landscape.

• We’ll discuss how Morgan Stanley’s concerns about competitive pressures and industry headwinds could shape Harley-Davidson’s investment narrative going forward.

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To be a Harley-Davidson shareholder today, you need conviction in the company’s ability to preserve its iconic brand while adapting to changing consumer preferences and mounting competition. Morgan Stanley’s recent downgrade reinforces existing concerns about margin pressures and the persistence of weak consumer demand, which remain the most important near-term risk. However, this development does not materially alter the significance of the upcoming Q3 earnings announcement as the next major catalyst that could sway sentiment and clarify the financial health of the business.

The news of Carolwood Capital acquiring Indian Motorcycles and installing former Harley-Davidson leadership is particularly relevant here, as it highlights intensifying rivalry within the heavyweight and legacy motorcycle market. As Harley-Davidson works to protect its pricing and share, investor attention is likely to remain firmly on competitive positioning relative to both established and newly energized peers entering the field.

On the other hand, investors should also keep in mind the risk posed by…

Read the full narrative on Harley-Davidson (it’s free!)

Harley-Davidson’s outlook anticipates $3.9 billion in revenue and $390.5 million in earnings by 2028. This reflects a yearly revenue decline of 4.4% and a $147.7 million increase in earnings from the current $242.8 million.

Uncover how Harley-Davidson’s forecasts yield a $29.33 fair value, a 7% upside to its current price.

Four members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate Harley-Davidson’s fair value between US$19 and US$47.94 per share. As competition heats up and margin pressures intensify, you will find that market participants can hold sharply different expectations for the company’s future.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Harley-Davidson – why the stock might be worth as much as 75% more than the current price!