• Earlier this week, JPMorgan downgraded Wendy’s from Overweight to Neutral after the company disclosed plans to close about 300 additional underperforming U.S. restaurants in 2025, following 240 closures in 2024.

• The downgrade underscored investor concern that Wendy’s turnaround hinges on lifting average unit volumes enough to restore franchisee profitability and support fresh U.S. expansion.

• Next, we’ll examine how the planned 300 U.S. restaurant closures reshape Wendy’s investment narrative around growth, margins, and franchise health.

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To own Wendy’s today, you have to believe the brand can stabilize its U.S. franchise base while growing digital, breakfast, and international sales enough to offset cost pressures. The plan to close roughly 300 additional underperforming U.S. units in 2025 sharpens near term focus on same-restaurant sales and franchisee margins, while reinforcing the key risk that prolonged unit underperformance could keep pressuring royalties, store counts, and earnings.

Against this backdrop, Wendy’s November 2025 move to market up to US$400,000,000 of new senior secured notes to refinance existing higher-cost debt and potentially fund growth is especially relevant. With interest costs already constraining coverage, any balance sheet reshaping will sit alongside restaurant closures as investors watch how much financial flexibility Wendy’s really has to support franchisees, invest in digital, and maintain dividends.

But while closures may help reset the base, investors should still weigh the risk that sustained U.S. franchise margin pressure could…

Read the full narrative on Wendy’s (it’s free!)

Wendy’s narrative projects $2.3 billion revenue and $210.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 1.2% yearly revenue growth and an $18.3 million earnings increase from $192.1 million today.

Uncover how Wendy’s forecasts yield a $10.25 fair value, a 21% upside to its current price.

Eleven fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$10 to US$25.41, so you are seeing very different expectations about Wendy’s potential. Set against concerns about U.S. franchise margin pressure and unit closures, these varied views underline why it can help to compare several independent perspectives before deciding how this stock might fit into your portfolio.