Bitcoin (BTC) price is
flashing warning signals today (Tuesday(, November 11, 2025, after rejecting
key resistance at $107,482 and falling back to $105,296.69, down 0.64% on the
session.

According
to my technical analysis, based on my 10-year experience as a trader and
analyst, the cryptocurrency faces a potentially severe correction scenario,
with the $100,000 level representing the last line of defense for bulls before
a possible 30% plunge to $74,000.

Let’s check together how low can Bitcoin price go and
what are the newest BTC price predictions for the reamning of 2025.

Bitcoin’s
price on Tuesday, November 11, 2025, stalled at the resistance level determined
by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 200 EMA, and the $107,000 level marking
lows from early October. The intraday high was drawn at $107,500, but at the
time of writing, BTC is falling 0.7% and trading at $105,325.

According
to my technical analysis, the $100,000 level currently
represents the last line of defense for bulls, combined with the 50% Fibonacci
retracement. The 50 EMA is close to crossing the 200 EMA from above, generating
the so-called death cross, a very strong sell signal. In this scenario, I
would expect BTC price could fall to as low as $74,000, matching the April
lows and representing a 30% decline from current levels.

The death
cross pattern occurs when the shorter-term 50-day exponential moving average
crosses below the longer-term 200-day EMA, signaling momentum has shifted
decisively bearish. Bitcoin ‘s 50-day MA currently sits at $111,864 while the
200-day MA is at $110,364, a narrowing gap that suggests the crossover could
occur within days.

Paul
Howard, Director at Wincent, highlighted the deteriorating sentiment:
“Fears of a collapse has filtered into the risk sentiment. Cryptocurrency
prices seem to have abated owing to US economic sentiment improving with
regards to risks from tariffs and the cessation of government shutdown.
$100,000 remains the key resistance level for BTC where we see strong interest
from institutional buyers.”

Please also take a look at my previous Bitcoin price predictions:

How Low Can BTC GO? Three
Critical Support Levels on Path Lower

Along the
way, I identify a short-term support zone between $92,000-$94,000 strengthened
by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and early May lows. This intermediate level
represents approximately 12-14% downside from current prices and could provide
temporary relief if $100,000 support breaks.

The most
severe scenario targets $74,000, which would match Bitcoin’s year
low of $74,420.69 established in April 2025. This represents a 30% decline from
current levels and would erase nearly all gains accumulated since spring. The
April lows marked a critical accumulation zone where institutional buyers
aggressively entered positions, making this level particularly significant as
ultimate support.

Invalidation
of my bearish scenario would be a return above the 200 and 50 EMAs, which would
free Bitcoin from bearish pressure and potentially open the path back toward
the October all-time high of $126,080. However, with price currently trading
below both moving averages and technical indicators deteriorating, the
probability favors further downside.

“The
market is in a correction phase, and on-chain flows clearly show this. Analysis
of the on-chain Cost Basis Distribution indicator from Glassnode shows levels
where positions in Bitcoin are being built or closed on a large scale,” XTB
analyst emphasized the on-chain evidence supporting correction:

Market Sentiment Turns
Fearful

Technical
indicators paint an increasingly bearish picture beyond just the impending
death cross. The Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 29,
firmly in “Fear” territory, reflecting growing anxiety among
cryptocurrency investors. This represents a dramatic shift from the euphoric
sentiment that drove Bitcoin to its October record high above $126,000.

Bitcoin’s
Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 44.46, hovering in neutral territory but
trending lower. The cryptocurrency has posted only 50% green days over the past
30 trading sessions, and bearish sentiment has climbed to 36% among market
participants. These metrics suggest conviction among bulls is wavering as the
rally loses steam.

“The
lack of major catalysts and mixed macro signals has kept investors cautious,
though underlying sentiment remains constructive following last week’s
stabilization across digital assets. Price action continues to be influenced by
traditional market dynamics, particularly expectations for U.S. rate cuts and
fluctuations in the dollar,” Joel Kruger, crypto strategist at LMAX, provides
broader context for the weakness:

Why Bitcoin Will Fall
Down? Macro Headwinds and Mixed Signals

Kruger
continued: “The combination of softer U.S. labor data and tentative
progress in Washington’s political negotiations has tempered risk appetite, but
it has also strengthened the medium-term case for easier policy, a backdrop
typically favorable for crypto. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain a
wildcard, with investors closely monitoring developments in trade and energy
markets for potential spillover effects on global liquidity and
sentiment.”

The Federal
Reserve’s monetary policy path remains
a critical variable. While the probability of a December rate cut sits
above 64%, Fed speakers have emphasized the need to “go slow” in
cutting rates, creating uncertainty about the pace of easing. Lower rates
typically benefit non-yielding assets like Bitcoin by reducing opportunity
cost, but the slower-than-expected easing trajectory has dampened enthusiasm.

Dollar
fluctuations add another layer of complexity. Bitcoin typically moves inversely
to the U.S. Dollar Index, but improved economic sentiment regarding tariff
risks and the government shutdown resolution has provided temporary support to
the greenback, creating headwinds for crypto.

The
cryptocurrency remains more than 16% below its October peak of $126,080, having
officially entered bear market territory (defined as a 20% decline from highs)
during last week’s selloff. While
Monday’s brief Senate shutdown rally pushed Bitcoin above $106,000, the
cryptocurrency has failed to build on those gains, suggesting the bounce was
more technical relief than fundamental reversal.

Bitcoin Price Analysis,
FAQ

How low can Bitcoin go in
2025?

According
to my technical analysis, Bitcoin could fall to $74,000 if the $100,000 support
level breaks, representing a 30% decline from current levels around $105,296.
This target matches the April 2025 year low of $74,420.69 and would be
triggered by confirmation of a death cross (50 EMA crossing below 200 EMA)
combined with breakdown of critical support.

What is a death cross in
Bitcoin and why does it matter?

A death
cross occurs when Bitcoin’s 50-day exponential moving average crosses below the
200-day EMA from above, signaling that shorter-term momentum has turned
decisively bearish. The 50-day MA currently sits at $111,864 while the 200-day
MA is at $110,364, with the crossover potentially occurring within days. This
technical pattern is considered a very strong sell signal because it indicates
the trend has reversed from bullish to bearish.

What are Bitcoin’s key
support levels right now?

Bitcoin
faces three critical support zones: $100,000 (current last
line of defense, combined with 50% Fibonacci retracement and institutional
buying interest), $92,000-$94,000 (intermediate support
strengthened by 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and early May lows), and $74,000 (April
2025 year low representing final major support).

Is Bitcoin in a bear
market?

Yes,
technically Bitcoin entered bear market territory by falling more than 20% from
its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. The cryptocurrency currently trades
at $105,296.69, representing a 16.5% decline from the peak. While not yet a
full 20% correction, Bitcoin touched levels below $100,000 last week that
qualified as bear market. The Fear & Greed Index at 29 (Fear), bearish
sentiment at 36%, and only 50% green days over the past 30 sessions all support
the characterization of a market in correction mode.