How much will the U.S. energy mix change under Trump?

March 17, 2025

From Joe Biden to Donald Trump, the vibes have shifted dramatically when it comes to energy and the environment. But even though Green New Deal aspirations have given way to “Drill, baby drill!” this country is likely to continue its all-of-the-above approach to energy. We want energy from everywhere, especially with U.S. and global electricity demand on the rise.

Price stability is a big reason to rely on a variety of sources, said Greg Upton, executive director of the Center for Energy Studies at Louisiana State University.

“Even if natural gas right now is the least-cost, kind of, new generation source … the cost to doing that if you go all in on any source — and this includes natural gas — is of course the price of that commodity can fluctuate,” he said.

So, if natural gas prices spike, it could lead to large increases in electricity prices, Upton said. But the U.S. can turn to other sources if that happens, like solar, wind, coal, nuclear and geothermal. 

And prices are more likely than a president to bring particular energy sources off- or online.

“Coal production and consumption has declined dramatically in the United States, and that’s primarily because we’re producing natural gas at a very low cost,” said Daniel Raimi, a fellow at the nonprofit Resources for the Future.  

He believes coal will continue to decline under the Trump administration. “Because of the competition from natural gas and renewables, renewables are almost certainly to keep growing,” he said.

“Will those technologies shift dramatically from today to four years from now in the overall energy picture? It’s a big ship — likely not too much,” said Morgan Bazilian, a public policy professor at the Colorado School of Mines.

He said it’s not just the energy mix that is likely to stay the course. So will some commitments to monitor and mitigate carbon emissions.

“If they’re going to sell their product to a global company that then ships it to LNG, that company wants to ensure that their supply chain is as low-emission and efficient as possible,” Bazilian said.

That’s in large part because as the U.S. sells more LNG — liquefied natural gas — abroad, the exporters will still be held to international standards.

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