• Alibaba is preparing a major overhaul of its flagship mobile AI app, renaming it “Qwen” and adding agentic AI features aimed at helping users shop across Taobao and other Alibaba platforms. The updated app will remain free for now as it builds a user base.

• The Qwen AI assistant has passed 10,000,000 downloads in its first week of public beta, as Alibaba positions the app as an entry point into the consumer AI market built on its own foundational model.

• Alibaba has introduced the Quark AI Glasses series in China, integrating the Qwen model and Qwen App to support voice and vision assistance for translation, navigation, shopping and productivity, with prices starting at ¥3,799 for the S1 and ¥1,899 for the G1 across major e commerce sites and 604 partner optical stores in 82 cities.

• China has set new rules for major platforms such as Alibaba and JD.com that restrict pressure on merchants to offer discounts or adopt practices viewed as disrupting market order and that define responsibilities on consumer protection, user data and false or misleading influencer content. A separate White House national security memo reported in the media alleges Alibaba supported the Chinese military with technology and data services, which the company has called “complete nonsense” and an attempt to malign it.

• Fair Value Estimate: Trimmed slightly from US$198.04 to US$195.12, reflecting modest adjustments to key assumptions.

• Discount Rate: Moved from 9.30% to 9.38%, which implies a somewhat higher required return in the model.

• Revenue Growth: The assumed long term annual revenue growth moved from 9.34% to 9.31%.

• Net Profit Margin: The long term net profit margin assumption moved from 13.25% to 13.08%.

• Future P/E: The forward P/E expectation in the model changed from 24.23x to 24.03x.

Narratives on Simply Wall St let you connect the story you see for a company with the numbers you care about, including your assumptions for future revenue, earnings, margins and fair value. Each Narrative links Alibaba Group Holding’s business drivers to a forward looking forecast and a fair value estimate, then compares that to the current share price. Hosted on the Community page used by millions of investors, Narratives update as new news and earnings arrive, so you can quickly see if your view still holds or if it is time to rethink your stance.

If you want the full picture behind Alibaba Group Holding’s fair value and forecasts, start with the original Narrative on Simply Wall St.

• How heavy investment in AI, cloud and quick commerce is built into forecasts for revenue growth, margins and earnings through to 2028 in the Narrative on BABA: Cloud AI And Consumer Apps Will Build Stronger Long-Term Earnings Power.

• What needs to happen on revenues, earnings, P/E and discount rate assumptions for the analyst consensus price target to line up with your own view of fair value.

• Which risks, including margin pressure, competition, regulatory uncertainty and large capital expenditure plans, could break the story and prompt you to update your Narrative as new data comes in.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include BABA.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com